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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDCRP Received: 2018-07-21 05:54 UTC
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440 FXUS64 KCRP 210554 AAB AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018 .DISCUSSION... Updated for 06z aviation. && .AVIATION... No significant changes needed to the 06z tafs. There is still a small chance of MVFR cigs/vsbys at ALI/VCT early in the morning otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. South to southeast winds will increase mid to late morning with some gusts in excess of 20 knots at times. Winds will subside between 00z and 02z at ALI/CRP/VCT but will remain elevated at LRD through the evening hours. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 630 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/ DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs. AVIATION...Persistence will be followed for the forecast with dry air mass in place as the upper level ridge remains over the region. VFR conditions are expected through the period except for a brief period from 09Z-13Z for the inland coastal plains where fog/low stratus will be possible and provide MVFR conditions from NQI-ALI-BEA-VCT. Gusty southeast winds are expected again for Saturday afternoon. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)... The hot and rain-free weather patterns continues with a persistent mid/upper level ridge over the region. High dewpoints will maintain muggy conditions overnight and high heat indices (generally 105 to 109 degrees area wide, though a few locations may touch on 110 degrees briefly) in the afternoon and early evening tomorrow. Light to moderate south to southeast winds will persist. LONG TERM (Sunday Through Friday)... Upper ridge pattern begins to shift from a more easterly pattern to a more northernly pattern by mid week, as the 500 mb high retrogrades more to the west and allowing the aforementioned upper flow to be more to the north. GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a possible frontal boundary moving into at least northern portions of Texas by Tuesday, and possibly even farther south if a complex of storms occur over North Texas and bring boundaries down farther south and possibly provide a focus for storms in our area Tuesday or Wednesday. Considering how warm it is up in Oklahoma and North Texas at this time, do not feel that any boundary this far south will amount to much and thus will not bring any rainfall into the inland areas of South Texas through mid week. Convection may have to be added by other shifts (PWATs do increase to 2 inches or more but that could be in part due to pooling along boundary). For now, will bank on the belief that: the boundary will not come this far south (or be so weak as not to make much of a focus), the moisture will not be as pronounced, and the mid level temperatures are still above 10C which will provide a good cap. Thus, will go more with the "big bubble no trouble" scenario than the model suggestions on rainfall. Given the temperatures near the surface and mid levels, the main weather will be the very warm temperatures and elevated heat indices; at this time forecasted heat indices are at or below 109 over most areas Sunday-Tuesday but there could be enough later in the forecast to warrant a heat advisory in some areas through mid week. Will keep high temperatures through Tuesday a bit below MOS over the eastern areas given it has been warm (generally went with a blend of Superblend, WPC, and NMB). After that, will lean a bit cooler with upper ridge retrograding and possible approach of upper low by Friday. This upper low (12Z GFS and 00Z Canadian bring it closer to area than 12Z ECMWF) could possibly bring rain back into the forecast toward the end of the work week. For now, have kept the rain chances for Friday restricted to the gulf waters, but again if the low looks better and the moisture is there then rain chances can be added to the forecast as confidence increases. Overnight temperatures look warm and humid for the most part, and did not deviate much from the model blends on this. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 97 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Victoria 76 98 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 Laredo 77 107 78 109 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Alice 75 101 75 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Rockport 80 91 80 92 80 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 75 106 76 108 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 76 101 76 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 93 81 93 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ TB/78...AVIATION