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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLUB Received: 2018-06-19 05:26 UTC
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039 FXUS64 KLUB 190526 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018 .AVIATION... VFR next 24 hours. Outside change of TSRA Tuesday afternoon mainly west of KLBB/KPVW. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ DISCUSSION... Another day with isolated to scattered convection in a humid airmass across the Rolling Plains and questions of how far west this activity will push. Storms are developing in an axis of higher moisture seen on the GOES-16 high-level moisture/6.19 micron band which is roughly along and east of a Silverton to Post line. Storms are already kicking out an outflow boundary that is marching west and new storms may develop along and east of the boundary. The biggest question is how far west storms will develop as dewpoints taper off as one heads towards the TX/NM state line. Best precipitation chances should remain along and east of I-27/US 87 tonight with the activity tapering off after sunset. Tomorrow should be drier across the Rolling Plains but we could see a few storms drift into the western South Plains late in the day as flow aloft becomes westerly which could push storms off the higher terrain into our forecast area. Temperatures will be fairly close to what we are seeing today as southerly to southeasterly surface winds keep a humid airmass in place. Wednesday could be the day we see the best rainfall chances for the week as a cold front pushes into the region and could stall out across the area in the afternoon. Models differ on how far south the boundary will make it and there will be little cool air behind the front to help shove it south faster than model forecasts. All models have been consistently favoring the Rolling Plains with the highest precipitation chances through the day and tapering off heading into the South Plains but this could change depending on how strong northwesterly flow aloft develops through the day. If convection can fire across the Sangres or Raton Mesa and push southeast late in the day, we could see increased rain chances across the South Plains as well. Temperatures will depend on how much cloud cover and precipitation develops along the front and will only see a degree or two cooler than we did on Tuesday IF the front remains on track as in the 12Z model runs. Temperatures will then start to warm and precipitation chances taper off heading into the weekend. Saturday remains highly uncertain for temperatures as heights really don't build much over the area with zonal to northwesterly flow but all models show thickness values increasing quite a bit during the day. MOS guidance continues to show readings at or above the century mark for all but the northwestern South Plains which will be in the upper 90s. Ensemble run temperatures show the potential for temperatures to be in the 102-104 degree range for Lubbock and Childress, and a few warmer readings than that for portions of the Rolling Plains. The good news is that the heat should be relatively short-lived as we move into the first part of next week as thickness values start to decrease and we see the potential for some weak disturbances to move across the area. The GFS shows that there could be afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the area the first part of next week with the ECMWF not as optimistic. Both models do show the potential for another weak cold front Monday afternoon but differ on how far south it will reach in the afternoon. Will keep a dry forecast for now and temperatures falling back into low to mid 90s for the South Plains and mid to upper 90s for the Rolling Plains. Jordan && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/26
039 FXUS64 KLUB 190526 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018 .AVIATION... VFR next 24 hours. Outside change of TSRA Tuesday afternoon mainly west of KLBB/KPVW. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/ DISCUSSION... Another day with isolated to scattered convection in a humid airmass across the Rolling Plains and questions of how far west this activity will push. Storms are developing in an axis of higher moisture seen on the GOES-16 high-level moisture/6.19 micron band which is roughly along and east of a Silverton to Post line. Storms are already kicking out an outflow boundary that is marching west and new storms may develop along and east of the boundary. The biggest question is how far west storms will develop as dewpoints taper off as one heads towards the TX/NM state line. Best precipitation chances should remain along and east of I-27/US 87 tonight with the activity tapering off after sunset. Tomorrow should be drier across the Rolling Plains but we could see a few storms drift into the western South Plains late in the day as flow aloft becomes westerly which could push storms off the higher terrain into our forecast area. Temperatures will be fairly close to what we are seeing today as southerly to southeasterly surface winds keep a humid airmass in place. Wednesday could be the day we see the best rainfall chances for the week as a cold front pushes into the region and could stall out across the area in the afternoon. Models differ on how far south the boundary will make it and there will be little cool air behind the front to help shove it south faster than model forecasts. All models have been consistently favoring the Rolling Plains with the highest precipitation chances through the day and tapering off heading into the South Plains but this could change depending on how strong northwesterly flow aloft develops through the day. If convection can fire across the Sangres or Raton Mesa and push southeast late in the day, we could see increased rain chances across the South Plains as well. Temperatures will depend on how much cloud cover and precipitation develops along the front and will only see a degree or two cooler than we did on Tuesday IF the front remains on track as in the 12Z model runs. Temperatures will then start to warm and precipitation chances taper off heading into the weekend. Saturday remains highly uncertain for temperatures as heights really don't build much over the area with zonal to northwesterly flow but all models show thickness values increasing quite a bit during the day. MOS guidance continues to show readings at or above the century mark for all but the northwestern South Plains which will be in the upper 90s. Ensemble run temperatures show the potential for temperatures to be in the 102-104 degree range for Lubbock and Childress, and a few warmer readings than that for portions of the Rolling Plains. The good news is that the heat should be relatively short-lived as we move into the first part of next week as thickness values start to decrease and we see the potential for some weak disturbances to move across the area. The GFS shows that there could be afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the area the first part of next week with the ECMWF not as optimistic. Both models do show the potential for another weak cold front Monday afternoon but differ on how far south it will reach in the afternoon. Will keep a dry forecast for now and temperatures falling back into low to mid 90s for the South Plains and mid to upper 90s for the Rolling Plains. Jordan && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/26