National Weather Service Raw Text Product

461 
FXUS64 KFWD 182028
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
328 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Rest of Today and Tonight/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through sunset across mostly Central Texas and parts of North
Texas. The highest concentration will be along and east of 
Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 20 and activity should 
rapidly diminish around and/or shortly after sunset. Overnight, 
will keep low chances for rain across our southern counties with a
slight increase in rain chances before sunrise. Another surge of 
low level moisture may arrive across the southern counties before 
sunrise resulting in an increase of shower and thunderstorm 
coverage. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible with
any showers and storms.

Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies and east to southeast winds
at 5-15 mph. Overnight lows will likely be similar to this 
morning's readings and have gone about 1-2 degrees above guidance.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
The tropical low near the Texas Coastal Bend will be the main 
player in our weather through Wednesday. Unfortunately models are 
still split on the ultimate direction of where the primary low-mid
level circulation center will track as it will be sandwiched 
between two subtropical high cells to its east and west. The 
ECMWF and a couple of the high res models take the low on a westerly
and then southwesterly track into Mexico (which means less rain 
for our area) while the majority of the guidance takes it more 
northwesterly and and then shears it apart across Central Texas 
Wednesday as a shortwave trough in the upper level westerlies 
tracks across Oklahoma. For now I'm inclined to favor the latter 
set of more northerly solutions, primarily because the low center 
will tend to stay attached to the most vigorous convection, and it
is more likely that the vigorous convection will occur where 
there is a feed of warm/moist air off the Gulf. 

For the details of the forecast...it is likely that a large area
of convection will develop overnight between Corpus Christi and 
Houston and track generally northward into the southern and 
southeastern counties by daybreak. Activity will tend to diminish 
in intensity by mid to late morning as it becomes too far removed 
from the supply of Gulf instability. The majority of the morning 
rain should stay east of I-35 and south of I-20, and we do not 
anticipate average rainfall amounts to be more than a half inch,
but isolated amounts near 2 inches will be possible. Widespread 
clouds in the southeastern half of the region will keep high 
temperatures in the low to mid 80s. A little more sunshine and 
daytime heating farther to the northwest will allow convective 
temperatures in the upper 80s to be met and result in a few more 
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing northwest of a 
Temple to Paris line. While some locally heavy rain will be 
possible with this activity, the coverage and average areal 
amounts will remain low. 

There will be another lull in the rain activity Tuesday evening,
but once again convection should increase after midnight across
southeast Texas and move north into the southeastern zones by
Wednesday morning. The upper level weakness or deformation axis is
forecast to remain roughly from Paris to Temple. To the east of
this axis will be where the best chances of rain will occur with
PoPs above 50% and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. To the
west, temperatures will reach the upper 80s to near 90 and 
scattered showers and storms are likely to develop with afternoon 
heating. 

As a shortwave moves across Oklahoma, it will drag a cold front
southeast into the region by Wednesday evening. The GFS remains
the most aggressive in developing strong convection along the
frontal boundary and plowing it southeast into the CWA Wednesday 
night. Model spread with this solution is very high (with the 
ECMWF the driest) so we will continue to keep PoPs in the low 
chance category Wednesday night. By Thursday the upper level 
trough axis and highest moisture will be moving off to the east 
so rain chances will be decreasing. Meanwhile temperatures will 
be going up with highs back in the 90s for most areas. 

Generally hot and dry weather will prevail Friday into early next
week as a weak ridge builds over the state. Highs will again 
reach the mid to upper 90s for most locations. 

TR.92

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns: IFR and MVFR cigs returning this evening and tonight.
Potential for thunder at KACT.

Cloudy VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
afternoon hours with isolated scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. The best potential for convection this afternoon is
south of Interstate 20 and east of Interstate 35, and most 
activity will be moving northwest. For the KACT TAF, decided to 
change the convective mention to VCTS/-TSRA, but left the 
convective mention in the DFW area at VCSH/-SHRA. An isolated 
thunderstorm is possible in the Metroplex but chances are too low 
to mention in the TAF and will amend if needed. Gusty winds and 
heavy downpours will be possible with any showers or 
thunderstorms. A lull in rain activity is expected late this 
evening through the overnight hours with diurnally-driven showers
and storms occurring again Tuesday.

With ample moisture already in place, ceilings are expected to
start lowering this evening. Confidence is higher that KACT will
experience IFR conditions overnight and into Tuesday morning. IFR
conditions are possible at the DFW airports, but kept the ceilings
above 1 kft overnight for now. East-southeast and southeast winds
at 5-15 kts will prevail through the period.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  86  74  87  75 /  20  40  20  50  30 
Waco                76  83  74  85  74 /  30  60  30  50  30 
Paris               74  87  72  84  73 /  20  40  20  60  50 
Denton              77  87  74  87  73 /  20  40  20  40  30 
McKinney            76  86  73  86  74 /  20  40  20  50  40 
Dallas              78  87  76  87  76 /  20  40  20  50  30 
Terrell             76  86  74  84  73 /  20  50  30  60  40 
Corsicana           77  83  74  83  73 /  30  60  40  60  40 
Temple              74  82  74  83  74 /  40  60  40  60  30 
Mineral Wells       75  86  71  89  73 /  10  40  20  30  30 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/92