062 
FXUS64 KMEG 030809
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
309 AM CDT Thu May 3 2018


.DISCUSSION...

Skies are mostly cloudy across the forecast area early this
morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. An
area of thunderstorms was moving across northern Arkansas at this
time and will move into northeast Arkansas in a couple of hours.
These thunderstorms originally develop over western Oklahoma and
west Texas on Wednesday.

The thunderstorms that are moving across northern Arkansas will
continue to move east and slowly weaken but not before they reach
northwest sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will once
again be on the warm side with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Another round of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
southern plains this afternoon and head toward the region tonight.
The best chance of thunderstorms will be across northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri bootheel. Some of these thunderstorms could
become severe with large hail and damaging winds as the main
threats. Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows
Friday morning in the mid to upper 60s.

By Friday, a cold front will be moving into western Arkansas with
more thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of the front and move
into the forecast area. Temperatures will be a little cooler with
highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s. The cold front will move
through the forecast area Friday night with more thunderstorms
expected to move through the region. Temperatures will be a little
cooler Friday night with lows Saturday morning in the low to mid
60s. By Saturday, the cold front will be moving into central
Mississippi with thunderstorms still expected over eastern and 
southern sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will be
cooler on Saturday with highs in the mid 70s.

High pressure will briefly build into the region by Saturday night
bringing dry weather and seasonal weather for Saturday night and
Sunday. Another cold front will move through the region Sunday
night and Monday with more thunderstorms possible ahead of the
front. High pressure will return to the region by Monday night
bringing another period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures
for Monday night through Wednesday.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF set

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 to 30 hours. Mainly rain
free conditions expected tonight at MEM,MKL, and TUP initially. 
Weakening upstream showers and thunderstorms may result in a few 
rain showers and perhaps thunderstorms at JBR mainly from late 
morning into Thursday afternoon. VCTS possible at JBR Thursday
evening and perhaps at MEM towards early Friday morning. South 
winds will average between 10-15 kts with a few higher gusts at 
times. 

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$