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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDGRR Received: 2018-04-25 03:57 UTC
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951 FXUS63 KGRR 250357 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1157 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 High temperatures from the 50s to near 60 are expected the rest of the week compared to normal highs of lower 60s for this time of year. Scattered rain showers this afternoon and evening will exit the area Wednesday morning. Another chance of rain showers arrives late Thursday night and Friday with a cold front which ushers in a cool air mass for the weekend, again keeping highs in the 50s. Above normal temperatures into the 70s are then expected early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1036 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 A cold front is moving into the northwest portion of the forecast area at 10pm up near Ludington and Baldwin. The front is expected to progress rapidly to the south overnight. By 800am, the front should be exiting the southern portion of the forecast area along I-94. Bands of rain developed earlier this evening, and are in the process of losing some areal extent as of 1030pm. Expect the up and down trend of the precipitation to continue tonight with an overall north to south push. By 800am the rain should be exiting the far south and southeast portion of the forecast area. Temperatures will steadily fall tonight on increasing north winds. Lows will range from 35-40 across Central Lower Michigan to the lower to middle 40s across Southern Lower Michigan. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 No impact weather is expected and no changes from the previous forecast. Main concern in this time period is precipitation trends today and tonight. Agree with previous forecaster that activity should increase this afternoon and evening. At 2 PM EDT a cold front extended roughly along a Duluth, Minnesota to Omaha, Nebraska line. A strong attendant upper PV anomaly seen on water vapor imagery. This feature will intensify as it cross Lower MI overnight. Precipitation over Central Lower MI appears to be associated with mid-level fgen and should become heavier as fgen increases ahead of the PV max. This feature will be displaced eastward by the PV maximum and that should be an end to the rain. However, some of the convection allowing models suggest that sprinkles will be possible up around US-10 later in the morning behind the cold front. As noted previously afternoon cloud development could be substantial. As winds shift to a northwest direction in the afternoon, temperatures will stay chilly by the lakeshore from Grand Haven southward (that is, where the lakeshore is more northwest-facing). Thursday looks quieter with less wind and clouds. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 A mid level trough will be dropping down from the northwest to start the period. One shortwave associated with this feature arrives in the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday morning. Overall this feature is shown to be weakening with time. Enough moisture and lift are forecasted to support some shower activity which I will keep in the forecast. The next mid level vort max arrives Friday night. There are some differences with the models. The High Res Euro is further south...tracking the system close enough to the area to support some precipitation. The GFS is north and would keep it dry. Will feature only low POPs for this potential system for parts of the region. Temperatures at 925 mb from the High Res Euro are positive through most of the night. That would limit the risk for snow if this more southern track verifies. A cooler than normal pattern sets up for the weekend behind this system. Big warmup early next week. Deep warm air advection and the arrival of a thermal ridge supports well above normal temperatures. I did nudge temperatures up somewhat over the forecasted guidance. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1145 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 A mix of MVFR/IFR conditions will gradually improve to VFR overnight through mid morning and low clouds gradually dissipate and exit. VFR conditions will then continue through the day Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Northwest winds will ramp up to around 10-20 kts late Wednesday morning through the afternoon with highest gusts at KMKG. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 Timing of current small craft advisories look on track and no changes are planned. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 321 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 With no significant precipitation expected, river stages will continue to fall and the 5 current advisories should be able to be dropped relatively soon. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ848-849. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>847. && $$ UPDATE...Duke SYNOPSIS...TJT SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...MJS AVIATION...Laurens HYDROLOGY...TJT MARINE...TJT