National Weather Service Raw Text Product

596 
FXUS64 KSJT 192319
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
619 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue across West Central Texas terminals
through Friday, although clouds cover will gradually increase and
eventually lower into a ceiling in the 4k to 6k foot range for
much of Friday. East and southeast winds around 10kts tonight will
increase and become gusty for much of the daylight hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/ 

SHORT TERM... 
(Tonight and Friday)

..Continued Cool with Possible Rain...

The forecast headline for the next 24 hours highlights the 
approaching upper-level storm system. For tonight, surface high 
pressure will continue to move farther to the east. This movement 
will produce winds tonight from more of a southeast direction. Plus, 
clouds will increase overnight, as the upper-level system, to the 
west, moves closer to Texas. This wind shift tonight will begin to 
bring warmer temperatures into West Central Texas. Thus, overnight 
lows tonight will be warmer than last night, mainly in the 45 to 50 
range. For Friday, increasing clouds will limit sunshine. Plus, 
winds from the southeast will be gusty at times, especially during 
the afternoon. Highs tomorrow will remain on the cool side of 
normal, with numbers mainly in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. As 
the upper-level system moves closer to Texas, the resulting flow 
aloft, from the southwest, may have embedded minor disturbances in 
it; these disturbances could initiate showers and thunderstorms 
Friday. Thus, continuing slight chance PoPs for Friday looks 
reasonable.

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)

The upper low will move from south-central Colorado Friday evening, 
to the Kansas/Oklahoma border by Saturday evening. The dryline will 
advance east across our area on Saturday, and by mid-afternoon 
should be along the eastern border of our forecast area. The highest 
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across our northern 
counties Friday night, and across the northeastern part of our area 
on Saturday. The lowest PoPs will be across the southwestern part of 
our area. Some clearing is expected Saturday afternoon over the 
western part of our area, where the warmer highs (in the upper 70s 
to lower 80s) are expected. Could also have a window for elevated 
fire weather conditions in our far western and southwestern counties 
for a few hours Saturday afternoon, where somewhat gusty west winds 
combine with relative humidity values dropping to 20-25 percent.

A cold frontal passage from the north is expected across the 
northern third of our area by early evening Saturday, and across the 
rest of our area early Saturday night. Gusty north winds will follow 
passage of this front, and temperatures will be cooler overnight 
into Sunday. Lows Saturday night are expected to be in the mid to 
upper 40s, with highs on Sunday ranging fom the upper 60s across the 
northeastern part of our area, to the mid 70s along the I-10 
corridor. 

Dry conditions with a warming trend in temperatures expected Monday 
into Tuesday. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be 
with a cold front, which is progged to move south into our northern 
counties Tuesday afternoon and evening, and across the rest of our 
area Tuesday night. Carrying 20-30 PoPs at this time. After warm 
temperatures (highs mostly 80-85) on Tuesday, temperatures will be 
cooler Wednesday behind the front with increased cloud cover 
(especially for our northern counties). Beyond Wednesday, rain 
chances look to uncertain at this point to include in the forecast.
Warmer temperatures are indicated Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 48  70  55  74 /   5  20  50  30 
San Angelo 	 51  73  58  82 /  10  20  40  20 
Junction 	 49  73  59  79 /   5  20  30  30 
Brownwood 	 47  70  55  75 /   5  20  50  40 
Sweetwater 	 49  70  56  73 /   5  20  50  20 
Ozona      	 52  71  58  80 /  10  20  30  10 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07