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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Received: 2018-04-19 17:38 UTC
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290 FXUS64 KFWD 191738 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1238 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .AVIATION... /18z TAFs/ VFR conditions are anticipated through the valid TAF period with increasing high and then mid-level cloud cover on Friday. North-northeasterly breezes will continue today, but will begin to subside this evening. The spine of a surface ridge will move east of the region tonight, which will result in a gradual veering of the wind field. Anticipate a return to southeasterly winds either late Friday morning or early afternoon. Winds may become occasionally gusty as the surface pressure gradient tightens. A lead impulse is expected to drift across the area on Friday as well, and this will facilitate an increase in warm air advection aloft--mainly across the Concho Valley and into the Rolling Plains. The associated forcing looks to drop off appreciably closer to the I-35 corridor. In addition, lingering dry air in the 3-10 kft layer should help curtail precipitation reaching the surface. As a result, will leave the TAFs dry for the time being with the anticipation that mainly virga is in store through the afternoon hours. Top-down moistening processes will result in a thickening mid-deck on Friday. Carlaw && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/ /Today and Tonight/ A mild and pleasant day is in store with slightly below normal temperatures. Cold advection continues behind yesterday's front with northeast winds of 10-20 mph expected through this afternoon. With this in mind, have decreased forecast high temperatures slightly, especially across our northeastern zones where cold advection will be strongest. These areas will top out in the 60s while areas farther southwest will reach the low to mid 70s. There will be a gradual increase in mid/high cloud cover late this afternoon and into the overnight hours as some Pacific moisture arrives in advance of a deepening upper trough along the West Coast. Have nudged overnight lows up a couple degrees due to both increased cloud cover and an anticipated wind shift to the east. Meanwhile, a lead wave of ascent will be responsible for initiating numerous showers and storms across the Big Bend region late this evening and overnight. As this disturbance moves east, it could prompt the generation of a few showers or isolated storms farther east into the Texas Hill Country or Central Texas as mid-level moistening occurs. However, it appears this activity should stay just west of the forecast area through around daybreak Friday morning. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 314 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/ /Friday through next week/ Our upper level pattern will transition to southwest flow aloft on Friday as the long-talked about upper level trough moves across the Desert Southwest. During the morning hours, a weak embedded disturbance will cross Central Texas, and several hi-res model members are generating radar reflectivity as it moves across the region. Some hi-res guidance is rather bullish with precipitation, but an analysis of forecast soundings reveals very dry mid levels are forecast to remain in place. Very small glimpses of elevated convection are present which could support elevated showers or even an isolated thunderstorm quickly moving west to east across Central Texas. Top-down processes may allow for more rain to reach the ground than is currently expected, but am not expecting much at this time given the amount of dry air below about 550 mb. Will have a 20 PoP generally south of I-20 and west of I-45 on Friday, and further assess if the rain chances need to be increased. At the surface, a cool continental airmass will remain in place on Friday, even with 10-15 mph southeast winds at the surface. Mostly cloudy skies are expected due to a mix of mid and high clouds, and high temperatures will be below normal in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Rain chances increase across the region starting Friday evening and night. As the upper level trough continues moving east into the Southern Plains Friday evening, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop to our west and northwest where the strongest height falls are occurring. This area of convection will travel east during the night, spreading into our western counties early Saturday morning. Ahead of this area of rain, an increasing southerly low level jet and warm air advection above the surface will likely aid in the development of scattered showers and maybe isolated thunderstorms across North and Central Texas overnight. Widespread showers and storms will spread across the region during the day on Saturday. A warm front will quickly lift north, and the highest concentration of rain is expected to be north of this warm front, across roughly the northern half of the CWA. Any convection north of the warm front will be elevated, but meager instability aloft precludes a severe weather concern in this area. South of the warm front, a low threat for severe storms still exists IF breaks in the clouds can occur. Breaks in the clouds may allow for meager measures of SBCAPE to combine with strong wind shear due to strong winds aloft to support a few strong or severe storms. Hail near quarter sized and downburst winds would be the main hazards. A cold front will sweep across the region Saturday evening and night, ending the rain from west to east. The NAM is significantly faster than the other operational models, with the front pushing through most of the region on Saturday afternoon, and this solution may become reality as the ongoing rain cools the continental air already in place, allowing for the cooler air to seep south during the day. If this happens, any severe weather concerns across Central Texas would be limited even further. An upper level ridge will build to our west as the upper level trough exits the region. The GFS and ECMWF output additional light rain in our eastern counties on Monday where mid level moisture is forecast to remain trapped. However, downglide on the back side of the departing upper trough should suppress any rain chances and have kept silent 10 PoPs for now. After a cool day with temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s on Sunday, temperatures will slowly warm during the early part of the work week. Within northwest flow aloft, the ECMWF drops another front across the region on Wednesday, with additional light rain chances, but the GFS stalls the front to our north. The GFS is quick to move another upper level trough through the Plains on Thursday with widespread rain possible again. However, the ECMWF holds this upper level trough off the West Coast until the weekend. Until better agreement can be reached, will keep low PoPs spread across the area Wednesday and Thursday. JLDunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 51 71 52 63 / 0 0 10 40 90 Waco 73 49 72 53 68 / 0 5 20 40 80 Paris 65 44 69 49 64 / 0 0 5 30 90 Denton 68 46 70 50 62 / 0 0 10 50 90 McKinney 67 43 69 50 62 / 0 0 10 30 90 Dallas 70 51 72 53 64 / 0 0 10 30 90 Terrell 68 46 70 51 66 / 0 0 10 30 90 Corsicana 72 46 70 52 65 / 0 0 10 20 90 Temple 74 49 72 54 70 / 0 10 20 40 80 Mineral Wells 72 46 71 50 64 / 0 5 10 70 90 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 90/92