National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOUN Received: 2018-04-19 03:40 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KOUN Products for 19 Apr 2018 View All AFD Products for 19 Apr 2018 View As Image Download As Text
218 FXUS64 KOUN 190340 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .AVIATION... 6Z TAFs - VFR conditions will continue through Thursday evening with some high clouds streaming across the region. Winds will gradually veer towards the east and southeast Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018/ AVIATION... 0Z TAFs - VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period with some cirrus streaming across the area. Winds will decrease this evening and gradually begin to veer towards the east and southeast Thursday. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018/ DISCUSSION... After a cool night tonight, there will be a short warming trend into Friday, as low pressure develops to our west, and southerly winds return. This will also bring an increase in moisture so that when the next storm system arrives late Friday through the weekend, there should be sufficient moisture for significant rainfall across most of our forecast area. As the storm center is expected to pass mainly south of the Red River, instability will be quite limited across our forecast area, especially in the north. This will restrict thunderstorm chances primarily to southern Oklahoma and north Texas through the period, although a few stray storms will be possible to the Kansas border. Rainfall does look like it will be substantial in general (as always with convective rainfall, even in the absence of thunderstorms, amounts will vary a lot over relatively short horizontal distances), averaging between 1 and 2 inches over most of our counties for the entire event. The storm system will begin to clear our forecast area Saturday night, and rain chances will diminish a lot for Sunday, mainly remaining over the eastern 1/3 or so of Oklahoma. The GFS is faster than other medium-range models in taking the storm system east, so the slightly higher rain chances suggested by the ECMWF/Canadian models (for Saturday night into Sunday) were preferred here. The next weather system of significance will arrive around the middle of next week. Cutoff lows' positions are notoriously difficult to forecast a week in advance, and this is no exception, as different models and different ensemble members of the same model have it all over the place by midweek. CmS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 40 66 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 38 70 42 66 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 42 71 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 35 67 41 63 / 0 0 0 30 Ponca City OK 36 64 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 43 68 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 11/25/01