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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2018-02-24 23:23 UTC
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585 FXUS63 KIWX 242323 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 623 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 Major to moderate flooding continues to impact portions of northwest Indiana and southwest lower Michigan. Scattered showers will be possible into early evening before an area of rain and a few thunderstorms advances across the region. Breezy, but drier, conditions arrive for Sunday with warmer temperatures in store the first half of the work week. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 Last system for a few days rapidly approaching the area with one more round of rain for the area, along with a few thunderstorms and some windy conditions late tonight into Sunday. Area of rain and embedded storms was working northeast with leading edge pushing into SW Illinois, just a touch ahead of Hi res models. Bulk of thunder has been with line of storms moving through Arkansas and points east where the severe threat should remain. More hit and miss lightning strikes further north. Looks like 2 waves of precip, separated by only a few hours. Noted area will push in to SW areas by 00Z and quickly overspread the area within a few hours. A brief lull may occur in the wake of this before the actual cold front arrives with a quick round of showers and isolated storms. Upstream observations showing rainfall not overly heavy as expected with fast moving nature helping keep overall totals down. As a result rain amounts have been adjusted down somewhat, but still sufficient to cause some issues in the SE. Any storms could cause locally higher amounts in spots. Flood watch will remain in effect, but may be able to be cancelled prior to 12Z Sun. With surge of warmer temperatures will be seen by many areas this evening as warm sector of the system quickly pushes in and right with colder temps overnight. Gusty winds will occur near and behind the cold front as fairly strong wind field advances through. Some potential for gusts in the 40 mph range (isolated 45 mph) that could cause some minor tree damage with saturated ground and weakened hold by roots. Will defer to eve/overnight shift to monitor wind trends for any potential headlines. Consensus of offices was to hold off on wind advisory given short nature of the strongest winds. Sunday will end up dry with a good deal of sun by afternoon. Cold air will be limited, if not in existence resulting in temperatures similar if not somewhat warmer than today, starting the warming trend that will be discussed in the long term. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 320 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 Increasing upper level heights will not only keep rain at bay but also allow for a nice warm up for the region with highs soaring well into the 50s Mon-Weds as strong southwesterly flow sets up. Could be some light showers Wednesday afternoon, but main chance for rain will come as a result of 2 features, a weaker northern stream wave and initially closed low over the SW states Tuesday. GFS/ECMWF have been at odds with handling of the phasing with GFS more aggressive and faster vs slow EC. However, 12Z EC appears to be have come around and now almost perfectly matches GFS with stronger system coming into better agreement with GFS in regards to key features. Likely to categorical pops still warranted mainly Weds night as this feature passes through. Could see a quick quarter to half inch of rain (maybe more?) with progressive nature hopefully keeping impacts to a minimum. Return to colder, more seasonable temperatures will occur the remainder of the period with even some limited lake effect potential Thurs into Fri. Will keep slgt chc to chc pops as is for now. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 623 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 IFR conditions likely through the evening as primary shortwave and associated surface low lift into the Great Lakes. Moderate rain expected with a few thunderstorms possible at KFWA. Latest guidance is a bit more optimistic on ceiling heights but upstream obs show a large area of LIFR. 300-400 ft ceilings possible for a brief time this evening but should primarily remain at or above 500 ft. Quick improvement anticipated by morning with strong push of dry air advection. Some stratus may linger into the late morning but expect VFR by midday. Gusty winds also expected during the morning hours as this front passes. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ026-027-032>034. MI...NONE. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ016-024-025. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LMZ043-046. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LMZ043-046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Brown SHORT TERM...Fisher LONG TERM...Fisher AVIATION...AGD Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana