866 
FXUS63 KILX 241708
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1108 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Areas of light rain continue across the northern part of the 
forecast area this morning. Automated station at Galesburg
suggests a bit of sleet may still be occurring, but temperatures
are above freezing and no surface impacts have been received
recently. Thus, the winter weather advisory was allowed to expire
at 9 am. Further southeast, the heavier rains along I-70 have
pushed off into Indiana, after surface and radar reports indicated
that nearly 2 inches of rain fell since yesterday evening. No
changes planned to the flood watch, as the next wave of rain is
currently entering southwest Missouri. Hi-res models suggest this
next batch of rain arriving toward mid-late afternoon. In the
meantime, much of the forecast area should see a break in the
precipitation around midday and early afternoon.

Updated zones/grids were sent to refine the precipitation trends.
Temperatures and winds were largely on track. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Deep trough over the southwestern portions of the country
continues the southwesterly flow into the Midwest aloft. Above
normal temperatures and continued rain chances through tonight in
the forecast. That being said, in the shorter term, precip 
moving in northwest of the IL River Valley this morning where the 
temps are still below 0C...keeping the winter headline for 
potential of light icing/bad early morning travel. Beyond that, 
areas in the south and eastern portions of the state the most 
susceptible to flooding due to where the rain has already fallen 
this week...and being under the highest qpf through tonight. 
Expanded the Flood Watch a line of counties north as the qpf 
forecast has shifted slightly to the north. 

For the showers this morning, the next wave is moving into the
region now, spreading that precip further north again. Pretty
decent continuity between models in a break in the activity from 
mid morning into early afternoon. Also in agreement that a front
will move in and with another round going into the evening hours,
scour the precip out of the region and set up for a break in the
rainy weather that has been in place this week. However, details
are missing as the position of the low is still a bit
amorphous with an elongated trough associated with this wave. 
Thunder likely to accompany the afternoon/evening storms with 
better lift in a stronger wave. Anything surface based will have a
rather narrow opportunity for development, looking for clearing 
within the lull between waves. Severe threat will also be hinging 
on that instability to a certain extent, even if the shear is 
pretty decent. For now, much of the forecast area is in a Marginal
Risk, and the southeast in a Slight Risk, with the best chances 
to see some warmer temperatures. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Front moving through the region tonight/tomorrow morning will move
the precip out, but not necessarily associated with a lot of cold
air. Through Sunday, h5 pattern remains southwesterly, with a
quick wave passing through the region dry which is a shift from
previous forecast runs. Forecast soundings quite dry through
Monday, with weak high pressure on the surface. Flow aloft sets up
in a more zonal pattern until midweek when the next wave develops
over the Rockies and brings an end to the brief dry period.
Tuesday night, precip returns to the forecast, even as the model
solutions diverge. The ECMWF splits a system that the GFS phases
and looks to deepen out of balance in comparison to the axis
orientation aloft. The blend of the two, as a result, is fairly
widespread pops midweek. Expect major changes to the forecast, but
the pops will likely remain in there mid week. Temperatures
throughout the forecast much milder than normal as the temp
profile really does not take much of a shift with the frontal
passage tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue into the evening,
until the passage of a cold front. Some light drizzle lingers at
midday, though a couple hours of dry conditions are on tap before
showers and thunderstorms approach from the southwest. Most
widespread threat of rain will be from about 22Z through 06Z, with
the thunder potential more focused within a few hours' window.
Winds expected to trend more southeast with time and begin to gust
this evening, as an area of low pressure moves northeast into
Wisconsin. While skies will quickly become VFR behind the passage
of this system, the winds will be rather strong out of the west
overnight into Sunday morning, with some gusts exceeding 30 knots
through 12Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ056-057-061>063-066>068-
071>073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart