232 
FXUS64 KLIX 120941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
341 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An amplifying shortwave trough will dive south across the 
southeastern United States today. A strong cold front will accompany 
this feature. It is currently moving southeast across northern 
Louisiana and could reach northwestern zones of the CWA by daybreak. 
Continental airmass will knock temps back down about 10 degrees or 
so for a couple days. Generally speaking, lows will be in the 30s 
and highs in the 50s. One night of near freezing mins is expected 
Wednesday morning. This is for locations along and north of a 
Pascagoula to Slidell to Baton Rouge line. There won't be any rain 
with this boundary as there will not be any chance for moisture to 
return before it moves through. 

Temperatures will rebound slightly Thursday before yet another cold 
front moves through Thurs night/Fri morning. A slightly better 
chance of rain will be possible with this front as the sub-tropical 
jet carries Pacific moisture across Mexico to the northern Gulf 
coast. However, it appears the timing of this moisture will be such 
that showers don't develop along the front until it reaches the 
coast. So, have kept pops to locations south of a Houma to Lafitte 
line. This is a southward shift of rain chances, which is what 
model solutions have been trending towards. 

This last trough will finally be the one that shifts east to the 
Atlantic, allowing a ridge to develop over the CWA. Temperatures 
will respond over the end of the week and weekend by rising into the 
upper 60s to near 70. Moisture will begin to rise as surface high 
pressure shifts east and southerly flow develops. The next 
appreciable chance of rain will develop Sunday/Monday as a trough 
moves into the midsection of the country then. 

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION... 

Cold front moving through this morning causing winds to become NW at 
10kt while those sites on the lee side of lakes will be closer to 
20kt. VFR conditions through taf cycle.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will rise to 20 to 25kt today as a cold front moves through 
this morning. Winds will again lower before responding once again to 
another cold front that should move through Thursday night into 
Friday morning. High pressure will quickly move east after the 
Friday front causing winds to become onshore by Saturday and Sunday. 
Another cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday. Each 
of these fronts will bring with them at least short durations of 
flag conditions whether that be caution or SCA conditions.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Small craft advisories.
   
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend 
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or   
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support. 
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or             
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.          


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  31  58  38 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  59  32  60  39 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  60  31  59  39 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  59  38  61  45 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  58  34  58  42 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  59  30  58  39 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ536-538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$