National Weather Service Raw Text Product

717 
FXUS63 KIWX 221057
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
557 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Clouds will linger this morning, with clearing skies this
afternoon. Highs will only be in the middle 30s today. A brief
hiccup in conditions will occur tonight into early Thanksgiving
day with clouds increasing as a weak system passes to the north.
Skies will clear once again by Thanksgiving afternoon and persist
into Friday with temperatures warming to above normal levels again
by Friday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Lake effect cloud cover taking hold across nearly all of the 
forecast area on decent NE flow. Despite the favorable flow and 
Delta T values, no precip has been noted thus far with dry low 
levels and inversion height around 3500 ft. HRRR shows some light 
shower activity possible mid morning into early afternoon, but also 
shows lighter precip further north at this time which isn't panning 
out the best. By this afternoon, flow will quickly become more 
westerly and cloud deck should begin to erode as drier air works in. 
A cold day will be in store with highs only in the mid 30s. Another 
fast moving wave will pass through the region with only an increase 
in mainly mid clouds expected. Lows tonight will fall back into the 
mid to maybe upper 20s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Upper level flow will rapidly transition through a zonal flow on 
Thanksgiving day to amplified flow by Friday into Saturday in 
advance of the next front and stronger short wave which will be 
located across western Wisconsin by 00Z Sat. While dry on 
Thanksgiving, it will be on the cooler side yet with highs in the 
upr 30s to lower 40s, warming into the 40s to lower 50s Friday with 
some potential for even higher temps if enough mixing and sunshine. 
Quick shot of light showers possible with passage mainly Friday 
night. Temps will cool slightly behind the first wave Saturday with 
highs in the mid to upper 40s, with a secondary disturbance and cold 
front moving across Sat afternoon sending highs back to similar 
levels as Thanksgiving. 

Heights increase more dramatically into mid week as deeper trough is 
carved out in the Plains. Models vary on chances for precip with 
ECMWF keeping things dry here vs GFS showing another area of showers 
to accompany the front just outside the current period. Highs should 
shoot above normal once again by Tuesday with highs upper 40s to 
lower 50s. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 557 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

Mainly VFR through the period. Lake effect stratocu deck in cool 
northwest flow will generally hold between 3-4 kft this morning, 
though could see a period of high MVFR. Slight backing/weaker flow
under subsident regime aloft should allow lower level clouds to 
break up later today/tonight. 

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fisher
SHORT TERM...Fisher 
LONG TERM...Fisher 
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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