994 
FXUS62 KMHX 051505
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1005 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue just inland today as a weak trough
of low pressure lingers just off the coast. A cold front will
approach from the northwest Monday then move through the area 
early Tuesday and stall south of area through the end of the 
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 am Sunday...Visual satellite loop shows low clouds
eroding along the coast at present and slowly spreading inland.
The coastal plain will be the last to clear, probably not until
early afternoon. Weak trof offshore will cont very small chc of
shra near OBX. Thicknesses and some aftn sun support very mild 
highs in the 73 to 77 dgr range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Weakening high pres will cont over the 
region with again just very small chc of a shra imd cst. Light 
winds and lots of low lvl moisture will likely lead to another 
round of low clouds and some fog developing. Will remain mild 
with lows in the upr 50s to lower 60s inland and low to mid 60s
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...Near record warmth is expected Monday, 
which will give way to cooler and wetter weather for most of the
upcoming week. A cold front will pass through Eastern NC from 
the north early Tuesday which is expected to stall south of the
region. Then, a series of low pressure systems will develop 
along the front and bring additional rain and showers Wednesday 
into Thursday. Drier, but cooler weather is expected Friday and 
Saturday, as temperatures will feel more like mid-fall.

Monday...A coastal trough will persist along the coast, and 
continue to produce showers which will mainly remain offshore, 
however some shower activity is possible along the immediate 
coast. Temperatures Monday will be very warm, with low level 
thicknesses suggesting upper 70s to low 80s on Monday. A few 
locations could flirt with record highs on Monday. 

Monday night through Thursday night...Latest model guidance 
shows the cold front entering the northern portion of the CWA 
late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. It will take a while 
for the column to moisten up so initially only expect a few 
showers across the region Tuesday, but increasing southern 
stream moisture and a series of weak low pressure areas will 
travel along the stalled front bringing better showers chances 
through the rest of the period. Some model differences persist
with the placement of the stalled front and timing/strength of
the low pressure areas but expect unsettled conditions to 
persist. Highs Tuesday expected in the upper 60s northern tier
to mid 70s south, then upper 50s/lower 60s inland to mid 60s
coast Wednesday and Thursday. Lows expected in the low/mid 50s
inland to around 60 coast Wednesday morning, and 40s inland to 
50s coast Thursday and Friday morning.

Friday and Saturday...Drier weather is expected both Friday 
and Saturday as high pressure builds in from the north, though a
few coastal showers are possible as the front may remain close 
enough offshore. High temps expected in the upper 50s to lower 
60s Friday and a few degrees warmer for Saturday with lows
Saturday morning in the upper 30s inland to upper 40s to low 
50s near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/... 
As of 10 am Sun...Widespread IFR/LIFR stratus at all 4 terminals
at present. Expect these conditions to continue through late
morning, then transition to VFR late morn into early this aftn.
VFR will cont into the evening then looks like some fog and
stratus will again develop late tonight with some IFR or worse 
expected.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...VFR conditions expected through Monday 
night, however patchy early morning fog is possible which could 
produce periods of sub-VFR conditions. A cold front will push 
south across the region early Tuesday with a strong low-level 
inversion developing and overrunning moisture, with periods of 
showers likely leading to a prolonged period of sub-VFR 
conditions behind the front that will persist through much of
the mid-week period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 10 am Sunday...Fcst on track and no changes planned. 

Prev disc...Weakening high pres inland and weak trof offshore 
will lead to NE winds 5 to 15 kts early become E this aftn at 10
kt or less. As the high slides E tonight light SE winds will 
become more S to SW late. Some lingering 6 foot seas nrn wtrs 
shld drop to 5 feet before daybreak. E swells will keep seas in 
the 3 to 5 foot range today with most wtrs subsiding to 2 to 4 
feet tonight...highest seas outer central and nrn wtrs. 

Long Term /Mon through Thursday/... 
As of 330 PM Saturday...SW winds gradually increase to 10-15 kt
Monday, then a cold front will cross the waters late Monday
night/early Tuesday with winds initially becoming N around 
10-20 kt. N/NE winds weaken to 5-15 kt late Tuesday into early 
Wednesday with the front stalling just south of the area, but 
then expected to increase back to 10-20 kt late Wednesday 
through Thursday. Seas expected around 2-5 ft Monday through
Wednesday morning, then build to 3-6 ft Wednesday afternoon and
4-7 ft Thursday. Highest seas expected across the central and 
northern waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...HSA/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SK/SGK
AVIATION...HSA/RF/SK
MARINE...HSA/RF/SK