National Weather Service Raw Text Product

445 
FXUS63 KIWX 191846
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
246 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Warm and pleasant weather will continue through Saturday with highs 
in the 70s and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The next chance of 
rain will arrive on Sunday. Periodic showers will then be possible 
through the middle of next week...along with much cooler 
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Exceptionally high amplitude and large wavelength ridge is currently 
building over the eastern CONUS as high latitude trough quickly 
exits to the Canadian Maritimes and next large Pacific trough 
crashes into the west coast. Net result is a continuation of 
spectacular fall weather through Saturday. Thin cirrus shield 
gradually dissipating and expect clear skies with generally light 
winds overnight. Lows tonight will be similar to last night, though 
a bit cooler in spots (especially across the north) given more ideal 
radiational cooling conditions. Low level ridge axis does pass east 
of our area late tonight. SW winds and WAA will ramp up tomorrow 
(leading to afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s under full sun) but 
should not have too much impact on lows tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Warm/moist air advection continues into Saturday as trough slowly 
approaches. Expect a few more clouds on Sat that could keep highs a 
degree or two lower but still a dry and pleasant day.

Forecast for Sunday and Monday still a little uncertain but a trend 
to more progressive system may be emerging. Low confidence is due to 
the fact that main shortwave will be lifting into Hudson Bay but 
trough is so narrow that a substantial vort max gets cut off across 
the Lower Mississippi Valley. Secondary jet streak/trough then dives 
into the Great Lakes with some solutions (ECMWF in particular) 
showing a phasing event directly over our area while other solutions 
(Canadian, NAM, GFS, and ensembles) indicate a more progressive/ 
eastward phase. This mainly affects the forecast for Monday but 
still some uncertainty on exact timing of rainfall with cold front 
on Sunday/Sunday night. Good chance for rain when front does pass 
though, given ample moisture and good low level convergence with 
decent mid/upper level support. Trended the forecast toward a more 
progressive solution but did keep some PoPs in for Monday. By 
Tues/Wed good chance for some lake-enhanced rain showers as longwave 
trough settles over the Great Lakes. Will be much cooler than 
current conditions but should remain warm enough for an all liquid 
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR flight conditions expected for the period with winds this 
afternoon around 10 kts. Winds overnight will become calm.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Heidelberger


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