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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-10-16 15:25 UTC
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470 FXUS63 KIWX 161527 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1125 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Expect decreasing cloud cover as morning rain showers gradually come to an end. High temperatures will rise into the upper 50's and low 60's. With clearing skies and light winds, expect a chilly night inland from Lake Michigan as low temperatures drop into the upper 30's and low 40's. Areas near the lakeshore will be slightly warmer, with lows in the mid to upper 40's. Tuesday will be sunny, with highs in the 60's. Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue until Sunday and Monday, when a cold front will bring the next chances for rain to the area. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Large scale subsidence from the incoming ridge will bring an end to any lingering lake enhanced shower activity this morning as the upper level trough departs to the east, and drying commences. Expect decreasing cloud coverage throughout the day. It will definitely feel more fall-Like today, with 850mb temps falling to around 0-2C. This puts our highs in the upper 50's for most areas, and the low 60's in the far southwest-which is right around normal for this time of year. Surface high pressure will expand northward from the central plains into our forecast area through tonight. With the cool airmass in place, winds lightening and skies clearing, wouldn't be surprised to see some locations tonight dip into the upper 30's-particularly in NE Indiana, NW Ohio, and along our border into southern Lower Michigan (Hillsdale County). If you have a garden, it might be wise to bring some of those more sensitive plants inside-or cover them up just in case. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Thanks to the expanding surface high and the amplifying ridge aloft, weather will remain pretty benign through Saturday night. Our chilly airmass slowly shifts eastward and makes way for the new, with 850mb temps gradually increasing to around 9-12C by Wednesday-which is well above normal. This gives us high temperatures in the mid-upper 60's Tuesday/Wednesday and eventually upper 60's to low to mid 70's from Thursday onward. For comparison, normal high temps for the latter half of October are around 60F. The next chance for any precipitation arrives Sunday. Of course being this far off, models are showing some discrepancies. While they all agree about bringing a cold front through the CWA, with associated rain chances, they disagree with respect to the strength of our amplifying ridge-and thus how quickly the frontal boundary will shift eastward. The ECMWF is slightly weaker with the ridge, and places it over the Atlantic. This allows the front and digging upper level trough to progress eastward across our CWA- with the precipitation starting Sunday morning and largely ending by Monday evening. The GFS is a bit stronger with the ridge and has it situated further westward than the ECMWF, which keeps the front and associated precipitation chances out of our area until late Sunday night. Both models clear the forecast area of precipitation by 00z Tuesday. For the forecast, I introduced slight chance/low chance pops Sunday (to account for uncertainty) and then 30-40% chances for Sunday night into Monday. Monday night I kept dry given model agreement. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 633 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 VFR through this period. Sfc ridge will quickly shift ewd with wrly sfc winds blo 10kts backing swrly this evening. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCD SHORT TERM...MCD LONG TERM...MCD AVIATION...T Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana