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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-08-19 14:18 UTC
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244 FXUS63 KIWX 191418 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1018 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1018 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 High pressure will build into the area this afternoon and move slowly east over the rest of the weekend providing dry weather. As the high moves east of our area early next week it will become very warm and humid with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance will arrive Tuesday as a strong cold front moves southeast across the area. High pressure will move slowly southeast across the Great Lakes behind this front, providing fair weather with below normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Shrtwv movg east across IL with an attendant wk sfc reflection causing an area of showers and thunderstorms nrn IN which should continue to move east across nw OH this morning. Skies should clear behind this feature as subsidence/ridging build in allowing temps to mix out to highs in the lwr 80s, except a little cooler near Lake MI with onshore flow through the day. Decent radiational cooling expected tonight with clear skies early and high pressure overhead providing calm-light s-se winds as it moves east overnight. Patchy clouds may develop from the w-sw as wk waa begins in wake of departing high. Expect lows will be in the upr 50s to lwr 60s. Patchy fog psbl overnight, but confidence on impactful vsby restrictions too low to add mention to fcst attm. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Sfc high will continue to move east away from our area Sunday as a cdfnt drops into the upr Midwest. Moderately increased southerly low level flow/waa combined with building sern U.S. ridging aloft should result in mostly sunny skies with temps rising into the m-u80s in the aftn. Frontal boundary will remain nearly stnry over the upr Midwest Monday as initial shrtwv moves east across srn Ontario and stronger upr level trof drops se across Manitoba. This should result in a mainly dry day with temps continuing to warm slightly as wk waa and s-sw gradient flow conts. Contd with a slight chc of tstms n-nw as airmass will likely destabilize and possibility of convectively induced disturbance movg east in zonal flow from the plains/mid ms valley. Rain chances increase Monday night and Tue as strong upr level trof and associated sfc cdfnt drop se across the grtlks. Wind flow associated with this feature will be quite strong and moisture abundant, so unless cloud cover/convective outflows limit destabilization on Tue (which is a possibility), storms along the front could become svr. Sfc high pressure expected to move slowly e-se across the grtlks on backside of amplified upr trof late week, providing fair wx across our area with blo normal temps. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 623 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 Showers/storms remained south of KSBN, but passed near VC of KFWA over the past several hours. Conditions should improve through the remainder of the day with generally light winds. Can't rule out a touch of stratus/fog for the next hour or 2 at KFWA due to the moist boundary later, but not worth placing in TAF. Fog/stratus may become a concern after 6z Sun as depicted by airmass set to advect into the area currently across Wisconsin where pockets of dense fog exist. Remaining optimistic enough mixing will take place to knock down the threat to leave out for now. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JT/Steinwedel SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...Fisher Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana