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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIWX Received: 2017-07-25 08:16 UTC
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594 FXUS63 KIWX 250816 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 416 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 409 AM EDT TUE Jul 25 2017 High pressure will provide another comfortable day with relatively low humidity and high temperatures near 80. A brief warmup will occur Wednesday prior to the arrival of a cold front. Highs will reach the middle 80s with slightly higher humidity. Showers and thunderstorms are likely late Wednesday night into Thursday. Some storms could be severe along with heavy rainfall, especially over north central Indiana. Drier and cooler conditions will return Friday and continue into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 408 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Quiet and comfortable weather for late July expected through Wednesday. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will continue to slowly slide east today. Highs expected to top out near 80 with comfortable dew points in the 50s to lower 60s. As the high moves to the mid Atlantic region on Wednesday low level flow will become more southerly allowing a return of low level moisture. Dew points will creep up slowly during the day but should remain in the 60s. Coupled with temps into the lower and middle 80s it will feel a little more humid, especially in the southwest, but nothing oppressive. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 408 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Focus in the long term period is Wednesday night and Thursday with possibility of MCS producing severe weather and heavy rainfall once again. Outside of this system, remainder of long term looks quiet and quite comfortable for late July. Moisture will continue spreading northeast Wednesday night ahead of a strong short wave and approaching cold front. Models coming closer together on timing of this system. Seasonably deep and convectively enhanced low pressure is shown by most models to develop along surface front late Wednesday and move into western CWA overnight. Strong deep layer shear on order of 50-60 knots expected as mid level flow increases. Surface low a concern as low level winds back significantly yielding strong low level directional shear. Overnight timing though complicates severe potential as instability is limited with MUCAPEs between 1000-1500 j/kg. However, this may be enough to sustain approaching MCS into our southwest counties with a severe wind risk and even an isolated tornado possibility if winds indeed back near the warm front. Heavy rainfall and possible flooding just as much of a concern as model PWATs are well over 2 inches and warm frontal boundary will be near southern counties that have seen their share of heavy rainfall over last month. Low level jet of 30-35 knts coincident with theta-e surge is focused into this region and being lifted over warm front. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches look easily obtainable and locally higher amounts not out of question if storms train north of surface boundary. Lingering showers and storms expected Thursday with decreasing pcpn chances from west to east during the day. High pressure then moves back in to the Great Lakes and remains in place through the weekend. Fast moving weak short wave may move through the region late in the weekend or early next week but pcpn chances and amounts look small at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1252 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Sfc High pressure ridge movg east across the wrn grtlks overnight will result in little cloudiness with light/variable winds. Dwpt depression down to 0-4F now across nrn IN and some ifr vsbys in fog have been reported at MGC. Based on eve soundings and bufr fcst soundings, low levels too dry for anything more than ground fog mainly in rural locations, so continued with vfr conditions in the tafs. As sfc ridge moves east Tuesday, light e-se flow will develop across the area. VFR will continue with just a few cu psbl during the aftn along with some cirrus debris spilling se from nrn plains/upr midwest convection. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lashley SHORT TERM...Lashley LONG TERM...Lashley AVIATION...JT Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana