National Weather Service Raw Text Product

838 
FXUS63 KIWX 240535
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1235 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

Scattered showers will remain possible west of Route 31 into
tonight. Mainly dry otherwise tonight with lows dropping into the
50s. Rain will expand over the area Wednesday into Wednesday night
with highs into the mid to upper 60s. An isolated thunderstorm
will also be possible. Clouds and a few showers will linger into
Thursday behind this system. Friday into the holiday weekend will
feature periodic chances for showers and near normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

An upper level low will dive southeast from the Upper Midwest late 
this afternoon to the OH/TN Valleys by Wednesday night. Showers late 
this afternoon into tonight will generally remain confined to IL/nw 
IN/sw Lower MI near pivoting/pronounced low level moisture 
convergence axis on eastern fringe of height falls. Best chances 
will remain west across IL near stronger area of sfc-850 mb 
fgen...with activity more scattered (chance PoPs) into our nw IN/sw 
Lower MI zones. There may be just enough weak instability to support 
of isolated thunderstorm here into the early afternoon, though 
chances are rather low.

A widespread rainfall should spread into the entire area during the 
day Wednesday/Wednesday night as TROWAL/deep deformation sets up on 
north-northeast flank of upper low. A smaller scale vort max and 
strong left exit upper jet support rounding the base of the 
deepening longwave trough will also provide good chances for 
rain...especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Most locations 
will likely end up with a half inch to 1 inch of rain...with a 
narrow swatch of 1" plus possible into nw IN/nw OH where deformation 
axis pivots. Some embedded thunder/locally heavy rainfall rates is 
not out of the question as some weak MLCAPE possibly  develops 
under cool pocket aloft. Will continue to highlight potential for 
lowland/river flooding in the ESF (Hydrologic Outlook).

Light showers and low clouds will linger into Thursday, 
especially along/east of I-69, on the backside of exiting low 
pressure lifting northeast to near Lake Erie by later in the day. 
Turning cooler otherwise Wednesday into Thursday. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

More seasonable and at times unsettled weather will be the story 
Friday into the upcoming holiday weekend as the flow pattern 
flattens out a bit in wake of the Wed/Thur system. Will have to 
monitor a couple shortwaves to eject east under the next upper low 
modeled to take residence into Manitoba/sw Ontario. These 
convectively enhanced features will likely feed on a developing 
baroclinic zone, with the strongest signal for a period of 
rain/thunder locally being Friday night/Saturday morning and 
again Saturday night/early Sunday. Mainly dry otherwise with 
temps near normal. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1235 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

Upr low over IA will drop swd into the TN valley by this evening.
Heating/destabilization into early aftn will result in rapid shra 
dvlpmnt as mid lvl deformation based forcing spreads in across the 
area. Thus expect a gradual reduction in flight conditions through 
this aftn with mvfr likely invof KFWA. Somewhat drier air in place 
invof KSBN with slower saturation expected resulting in likely mvfr 
conditions later this evening. Will reaccess with 12Z fcst.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...T


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