446 
FXUS61 KRLX 061021
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
621 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with dry weather lingering Thursday. Moisture from
Matthew from the south and an approaching cold front from the west
will increase the chance for rain into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM Thursday...

High pressure will continue the dry weather across the forecast
area through the near term period. With the high located to our
NE, flow should generally be easterly, which will help keep
afternoon temperatures running well above normal across the
western slopes and lowlands. The eastern slopes will have some
extra cloud cover, with high temperatures closer to normal.
Generally used bias-corrected ECMWF guidance for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

The area will be sandwiched between an upper trough approaching from
the west and hurricane Matthew which should be moving north up the
eastern seaboard. Will continue to watch out for any PRE bands
that form well to the north of the actual hurricane and can
sometimes bring significant rainfall. ECMWF, NAM, and GFS all
indicating such a feature though their placement varies with the
consensus being over far southeast West Virginia, so have upped
PoPs accordingly. Ohio counties should make it through this event
relatively dry with maybe a few light showers from the approaching
trough on Saturday morning.

Sunday the trough begins to push the hurricane moisture well out
of our area, so begins the next dry period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

Zonal flow with broad surface high pressure should generally keep
us dry. GFS indicates a few vort maxes migrating through, but it
seems to be the most aggressive with these. Will have to keep an
eye on hurricane Matthew as it rotates back southward. If it ends
up in the Gulf as the GFS suggests it may pose a threat for a
heavier rain event next week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
As of 620 AM Thursday...

Another VFR day expected once lingering fog dissipates 12Z-13Z,
with just some passing cumulus at TAF sites. Clouds will be on the
increase from the SE tonight which should act to limit fog across
the south. Some flow should also remain overnight...further
limiting fog chances. Did include IFR in valley fog at EKN.
Generally easterly flow expected through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. 

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of fog may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...MZ