206 
FXUS62 KCHS 210228
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1028 PM EDT MON JUN 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually shift east through Friday while a
trough of low pressure develops inland. A cold front will stall
over the area Saturday before dissipating by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Late this evening: No change to the going forecast. Continues to
look like a very quiet night with high pressure in control. Skies
should be mostly clear, with just a few mid/high clouds streaming
in from the north around the prominent upper ridge. Temperatures
are still expected to fall into the low to mid 60s away from the
coast, with the coolest values in the typical cool spots. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An expansive upper ridge will flatten out over the central and
eastern United States during the period while surface high
pressure shifts into the western Atlantic. Low-level thickness
advection combined with downslope flow and mostly sunny skies will
yield steadily increasing high temperatures. By Thursday we expect
highs in the mid to upper 90s. Fairly deep offshore flow and deep
mixing should maintain rain-free conditions and somewhat below-
average dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Hot temps in the mid/upper 90s will continue through at least
Friday. Maintained slight chance pops only across northern/inland
counties, although the capped environment provided but the  upper
ridge could prevent any thunderstorm development for yet another
day. Then, a cold front is still expected to advance into the region
Saturday, although the position/strength of the upper ridge suggests
that this front will enter the region in a weakening/slowing fashion
and will likely stall/dissipate Sunday/Monday. Accordingly, raised
temps into the lower to mid 90s Saturday, and near normal lower 90s
should become common Sunday/Monday. While details regarding pops
remain uncertain, the general pattern favors at least
isolated/scattered thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. In fact,
the dissipating stationary front could serve to focus higher
dewpoints/greater instability over the region, and we could return
to a more active convective regime especially starting early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through 00z Wednesday. Winds will start out southwest on
Tuesday and will then become more southerly with the sea breeze.
Some gusts to around 20 kt will be possible in the mid to late
afternoon hours. 

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The low-level flow gradually turn southerly as high
pressure shifts south of the area. There are signals that weak
nocturnal surging will occur early Tuesday in response to the
formation of a weak lee-side through. Should see winds top out at
around 15 kt Charleston County waters with 10-15 kt elsewhere.
Seas will average 2-3 ft nearshore waters and 3-4 ft offshore
waters.

Tuesday through Friday: A decent gradient will exist between
Atlantic high pressure and a developing lee trough inland. Wind
speeds will frequently be 15-20 kt with some higher gusts though
we currently have conditions just below Small Craft Advisory
criteria. 

Saturday, a cold front could push into the waters before stalling,
initially turning sub-Small Craft Advisory winds toward the W/NW
then pushing winds to the E/NE. Forecast uncertainly increases
this weekend due to uncertain timing/progress of the cold front.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk for rip currents on
Tuesday due to 2-3 ft 9 sec swell, a robust afternoon sea breeze
and astronomical factors.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...ST/JRL