National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDRLX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDRLX
Product Timestamp: 2015-12-26 07:52 UTC
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843
FXUS61 KRLX 260752
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. MOVES NORTH AS
WARM FRONT TODAY...THE OSCILLATES IN VICINITY INTO MONDAY. COLDER
AIR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 07Z...SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STUCK IN PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TODAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD END UP WELL NORTH OF CWA BY TONIGHT...SO
HAVE POPS DRYING OUT LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...LINGER SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM AND HI-RES WRF NMM TO TRY TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY.
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN TODAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A WIDESPREAD
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF FORECAST...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH NO
CHANGES PLANNED.
COOLED HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE OR TWO BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE. USED ECMWF MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A WARMER
LOW TEMP FORECAST AS WE WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS LINGERING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND JUICY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA UNDER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WET AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE
FRONT SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H50 WILL BE AROUND 11C BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY SOME WHERE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ALONG THE FRONT...PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE OF BOUYANCY
BUT NOT IMPRESSED AS VALUES ARE LOW. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 50 KNOTS. SO CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED THUNDER OVER AREAS WITH HIGHEST SFC CAPE.
FOR MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING N ONCE AGAIN AS A
WARM FRONT WITH FLOW INCREASING UNDER DOWNSLOPING
FLOW...INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD VARY. EXPECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
USED THE SUPER BLEND AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE MORE SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH MIDWEEK BUT AFTER THAT...WE WILL
FINALLY SEE THIS MESS CLEAR OUT OF HERE WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN TO END 2015 WITH PERIODS SHSN BY WEEKS END. DESPITE
THE LAST MINUTE CHILL TO END DECEMBER...THE MONTH WILL PROBABLY
STILL END UP AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT SOME OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO A MIX OF FOG...DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS. ALL THIS IS PROVIDING IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY TAF SITES. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN AND CREATES SOME
SPREAD BETWEEN T AND TD.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS...KEPT MVFR FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER
TRENDS.
AS THE FRONT GETS NORTH...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CLOUDS
LIFT TO VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGHLY VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. SO OBSERVATIONS COULD VARY MORE THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 12/26/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
MOIST AIR/HIGH DECEMBER DEW POINTS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ
396
FXUS61 KRLX 260752 CCA
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. MOVES NORTH AS
WARM FRONT TODAY...THE OSCILLATES IN VICINITY INTO MONDAY. COLDER
AIR MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 07Z...SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STUCK IN PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TODAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD END UP WELL NORTH OF CWA BY TONIGHT...SO
HAVE POPS DRYING OUT LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...LINGER SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM AND HI-RES WRF NMM TO TRY TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY.
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN TODAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A WIDESPREAD
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF FORECAST...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH NO
CHANGES PLANNED.
COOLED HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE OR TWO BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE. USED ECMWF MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A WARMER
LOW TEMP FORECAST AS WE WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS LINGERING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND JUICY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA UNDER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WET AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE
FRONT SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H850 WILL BE AROUND 11C BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY EVENING.
THE FRONT COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY SOME WHERE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ALONG THE FRONT...PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE OF BOUYANCY
BUT NOT IMPRESSED AS VALUES ARE LOW. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL BE
AROUND 50 KNOTS. SO CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED THUNDER OVER AREAS WITH HIGHEST SFC CAPE.
FOR MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING N ONCE AGAIN AS A
WARM FRONT WITH FLOW INCREASING UNDER DOWNSLOPING
FLOW...INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD VARY. EXPECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.
USED THE SUPER BLEND AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE MORE SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH MIDWEEK BUT AFTER THAT...WE WILL
FINALLY SEE THIS MESS CLEAR OUT OF HERE WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
WORKING IN TO END 2015 WITH PERIODS SHSN BY WEEKS END. DESPITE
THE LAST MINUTE CHILL TO END DECEMBER...THE MONTH WILL PROBABLY
STILL END UP AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT SOME OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO A MIX OF FOG...DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS. ALL THIS IS PROVIDING IFR
CONDITIONS AT MANY TAF SITES. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO MOVE IN AND CREATES SOME
SPREAD BETWEEN T AND TD.
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH
SHOWERS...KEPT MVFR FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER
TRENDS.
AS THE FRONT GETS NORTH...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS TAPER OFF AND CLOUDS
LIFT TO VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HIGHLY VARIABLE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. SO OBSERVATIONS COULD VARY MORE THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 12/26/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
MOIST AIR/HIGH DECEMBER DEW POINTS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ