645 
FXUS63 KILX 151153
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
553 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

Southerly winds between a departing area of high pressure, and a
developing storm system, will help support another day with well
above normal temperatures across central and southeast Illinois.
These warm temperatures will also be aided by the dry airmass that
remains in place, supporting quick diurnal temperature rises and
minimal cloud cover. Expect daytime highs to top out well into the
60s area wide, with a few 70s certainly not out of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

Primary focus remains with the upcoming extended period of wet
weather. 

Deepening upper trough just offshore of the West Coast early this
morning. In the southern branch of the jet stream, a pronounced curl
with an upper low was located over southern Utah. While this low
will lift northeast into the Dakotas, moisture is already surging
northward ahead of a trough just west of the Baja California
peninsula. This moisture should rapidly surge northeast tonight as a
significant upper low forms near Las Vegas within the deep trough.
Forecast soundings over our area remain rather dry below 700 mb
through tonight though and even into most of Monday morning across
the eastern CWA. Have slowed precipitation onset a tad and largely
kept the forecast area dry tonight, except for some slight chances
over the far southwest from Rushville to Jacksonville. Rain chances
rapidly increase Monday morning and have gone categorical (80%) by
afternoon from Peoria to Flora westward. After that, have gone with
nearly 100% PoP's through Tuesday night, before quickly tapering
west to east on Wednesday. 

Strong low level flow Monday night through Tuesday night (850 mb
winds Tuesday evening progged to be 75 knots over the area) will
provide an impressive moisture surge, with precipitable water values
a good portion of that time in the 1.5 inch range. Have added some
heavy rain mention to Tuesday and Tuesday night when precipitable
water values will be at their highest. Still looking like the
forecast area should receive at least 3 inches of rain from this
system. To go with the heavy rain, wind gusts around 35 mph are
likely during this time with the mid-latitude cyclone tightly wound
over the central U.S.

Going later into the forecast period, model discrepancies widen
toward the end of the week with the strength of the broad upper
trough that will cover a good portion of North America. The ECMWF
digs the trough further south and drifts a surface high over us for
late week, while the GFS is a day or so slower with the digging
trough and sets up a stationary front just to our north Thursday
night. Will limit any mentionable PoP's on Friday to just the far
northern CWA, as the ECMWF also brings in some light precipitation
by Friday afternoon to that area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015

The influence of high pressure and the associated dry airmass will
keep quiet/VFR aviation weather conditions going through the 12Z
TAF valid time. An approaching storm system will produce mid-level
CIGS tonight, but any lower CIGS/VSBYS and rainfall should hold
off until after the end of the period.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...BAK