447 
FXUS63 KUNR 110921
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
321 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SKIES ARE MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW KEEPING
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD...MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. 

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...CLEARING SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BECOMING STRONG ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL REACH WELL INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 25 TO 35 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHWEST SD AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST SD...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN PLACE. WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SD
WHERE THE HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXTEND INTO TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT GENERALLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND NORTHWEST SD...TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 70S...WHILE SOUTH
CENTRAL SD WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THERE. 

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
30S AND 40S TONIGHT. THE MILDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND IN
AREAS WHERE THE WIND REMAINS BREEZY OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING
IN...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

MONDAY...QUICK MOVING UPPER TROF SHIFTS EAST WITH RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE AREA AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS BREEZY ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE...IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
EVENING...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
 
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
DRY AND MILD WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY GUSTY 
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...PRODUCING LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY READINGS OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN PLACE FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM 
     MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ012>014-025-026-031-032-
     043-046-072-073.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR 
     SDZ001-002.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR WYZ259-297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...15