996 
FXUS63 KFSD 280850
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
350 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AS OF 08Z 
ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS 
SEEM A LITTLE OVERZEALOUS ON COVERAGE/AMOUNTS BASED ON THE CURRENT 
REALITY...SO OPTED TO CAP POPS IN THE MID-HIGH SCATTERED RANGE FOR 
NOW...AND AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS 0.05-0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE 
DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN 
MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST LOCATIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY 
BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES SHOULD 
BE MOST PROLONGED. READINGS FOR THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN 
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE...JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT READINGS 
IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE EXPECT MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA TO WARM 
INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S AS SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL THERE FOR 
AT LEAST MUCH OF THE MORNING...IF NOT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THIS 
EVENING...AS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE SLIDES ALONG THE SLOWING ELEVATED 
BOUNDARY. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER BUMPING THE EVENING-EARLY OVERNIGHT 
POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR 
MORE PROLONGED LIFT. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL SURFACE 
FLOW KEEPING MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW 4-5KFT...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD 
POPS IN SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO 
THE 40S IN MANY AREAS...WITH READINGS HOLDING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE 
SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015

ON TUESDAY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LEADING TO A DRY AND 
COOLER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MIDLEVEL CLOUDS MOST ABUNDANT 
THROUGH OUR WESTERN CWA...TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY TREND TOWARD 
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AREA WIDE. ON TUESDAY 
NIGHT A SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MIDLEVEL 
WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED 
HIGH BASED SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. 
LOWS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 50 OVER THIS AREA WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER 
WILL EXIST...TRENDING DOWNWARD TO THE EAST WITH LOWER 40S THROUGH 
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND 
NORTHWESTERN IOWA.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN 
GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH WEAK...BETTER FORCING REMAINS THROUGH 
THE MO RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY SO COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED 
SHOWER OVER THAT AREA. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AGAIN LOOK TO BE FAIRLY 
EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...IS CHARACTERIZED 
BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING PARKED OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 
THE ENHANCED CHANCES BEING SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME 
FRAME OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015

THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT SO FAR THE LATEST 00Z NAM
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUGGESTING MVFR CEILINGS. IF MVFR CEILINGS DO
OCCUR AT KHON...KFSD OR KSUX ON MONDAY...THEY WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHER END MVFR JUST BELOW VFR. 


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MJ