209 
FXUS62 KTAE 201953
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
353 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A mid to upper level trough will further amplify across the eastern 
CONUS with deeper moisture and shortwave energy approaching our CWA 
from the northwest. MOS guidance shows a slight chance of a shower 
for our northwest zones by daybreak. Otherwise, skies will be clear 
to partly cloudy with min temps in the upper 60s inland and lower to 
mid 70s along the coast. 


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Monday afternoon a weak slow-moving cold front will move in,
bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms. For most of the
region POPs around 20 to 30 percent are forecast for Monday
afternoon and night. Highs will be in the lower 90s.

On Tuesday, dry air will move into the western half of the region as 
the weak cold front bisects the region. The best chance for rain and 
thunder will be in the Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia 
with POPs around 30 percent. Highs will be in the upper 80s. 


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The GFS model has an upper level cut-off low lingering over the
Carolinas for most of the forecast period, bringing dry air to the
lower levels over the region. The ECMWF model has weak upper level
features with abundant moisture in the lower levels from the Gulf.
Therefore, uncertainty is higher than usual with this forecast.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be in the
Florida Big Bend and south central Georgia. Rain showers will
likely remain isolated, primarily in the afternoon hours.

Highs will be in the mid 80s. Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with
light winds.

&&

.Marine...

Light winds and low seas are expected through Tuesday. By Wednesday
night, winds and seas will increase to 15 to 20 knots with seas up
to 4 or 5 feet.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rain chances will be low this week with rain amounts less than
0.50 inches, so there are no flooding concerns.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  92  71  89  69 /  10  10  20  30  10 
Panama City   74  88  72  88  71 /  10  10  20  20  10 
Dothan        69  90  68  88  66 /  10  20  20  20  10 
Albany        67  90  69  87  66 /  10  20  20  20  10 
Valdosta      67  92  69  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10 
Cross City    68  92  69  89  69 /  10  10  10  30  20 
Apalachicola  72  87  73  86  71 /  10  10  20  30  10 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR Coastal 
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY