733 
FXUS61 KCAR 142310
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
710 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY...WE MOVED UP THE TMG
OF INCREASING CLD CVR BY 2 TO 3 HRS BY USING THE TIME SHIFT TOOL.
OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS TO OVRNGT LOWS WERE UPDATE BASED ON
TRENDS NOTED FROM 5 AND 6 PM OBS FROM THE PREV FCST TEMPS AT THESE
HRS. LASTLY...HI AND LOW TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE FCST BEYOND
SAT WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE BETTER (COOLER)...MORE REALISTIC HI
TRRN TEMPS. ALSO HI TEMPS OVR LOWER TRRN ON SUN AND MON WERE
BUMPED UP BY TWO DEG F BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE...
DOWNSLOPE WSW WINDS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND FCST MAX 925MB
TEMPS OF LOW AND MID 20S DEG C...RESPECTFULLY...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CULMINATE WITH HI TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S AT MANY BROAD
VLY LCTNS ON MON...EVEN SO...WE ARE STILL INDICATING A DEG OR TWO
COOLER THAN THIS WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THESE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS TO OUR WEST IN QUEBEC THAT WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING, WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER, BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH THE
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN
ALL NIGHT FOR THE NORTH (CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT) WITH 30-40
POPS. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S.

THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO CENTRAL/INTERIOR DOWNEAST FOR SATURDAY AND
GOING WITH LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES THERE. DYNAMICS AREN'T GREAT, BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE A FEW
PUSHING STRONG LEVELS INTERIOR DOWNEAST/CENTRAL, BUT DON'T EXPECT
ANYTHING SEVERE AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR
NOW. NORTH OF THE FRONT IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE, JUST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, TOPPING OUT
AROUND 80. THE WARMEST TEMPS COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS AND THE NAM APPEAR TO BE MOST CONSISTENT
WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS SO HAVE USED A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS
FOR QPF... SKY AND POPS. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL HAS BEST
RECORD FOR MAXIMUM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SO WILL
USE THIS GUIDANCE BUT WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE MONDAY BY 2
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH DOWN SLOPE FLOW EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH AN ELONGATED 500MB RIDGE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE GEFS AND ECMWF CAMPS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE BIGGEST SPREAD COMING
ON A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS
PATTERN AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FLOW...DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE TIMING ON KEY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AS THE REGION WILL BE ON THE
NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIDGE. BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINT TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO RUNNING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS LATER
TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH. TENTATIVELY EXPECTING VFR DOWNEAST
TONIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. GENERALLY VFR DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH PERIOD OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY INTERIOR
DOWNEAST/CENTRAL WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.


SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.


SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM12 AND
GFS40 WHICH APPEAR MOST CONSISTENT. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE GROUP
(AROUND 2 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) COMING IN FROM ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LOCAL WIND WAVE TO PRODUCE COMBINED
WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3 FEET. TO CAPTURE RESOLUTION ALONG
COASTLINE WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON GRIDED WINDS AND
USING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FROM WAVE WATCH III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE/DUMONT
AVIATION...VJN/MIGNONE
MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE