262 
FXUS63 KFSD 051955
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
255 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS 
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE IN THE SHORT TERM.  SHORT 
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A FEW 
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY 
LIGHT.  WITH MIXING SUBSIDING THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO 
DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE 
AGAIN ON MONDAY AS 20-30 KNOTS MIXES DOWN FROM ALOFT.  FAIRLY MIXY 
DAY WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND DRY ATMOSPHERE. WITH WARMING 
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014

A WEAK WAVE AND WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A 
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING TOO 
MUCH FROM THIS. ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT SO 
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BREEZY AND MILD DAY AS DECENT MIXING WILL 
BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE MISSOURI 
RIVER VALLEY.

A WEAK COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND 
BRING A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE WIND. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
COOLER THEY WILL LIKELY FEEL WARMER WITHOUT A 30 MPH WIND. HIGHS ON 
WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE 
MID 60S DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. 

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...LATEST MODELS STILL 
SUPPORTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT NOT 
QUITE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS A 
BIT MORE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH ALLOWS SOME WEAK RIDGING TO 
OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SO WHILE 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT IS VERY 
LIKELY WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 15 MPH OR LESS BOTH DAYS WHICH WILL BE A 
WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING WEATHER PATTERN. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY MODELS STILL PRETTY AGREEABLE IN SWINGING A WAVE INTO THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WENT 
WITH 20 TO 30 POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 
ON THE COOL SIDE BUT ANTICIPATE THEY WILL BE ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES 
WARMER THAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN VISIBILITY CONCERNS. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...