080 
FXUS61 KBGM 030649
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW THE SEASONAL
NORM, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
CLD CVR EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE TDA AS UPR LVL TROF RMNS 
ANCHORED BACK TO OUR WEST. AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE CASES, MAY SEE 
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE BUT OVERALL A MOCLDY DAY EXPECTED. MIXING 
EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS H8 WITH MAX TEMPS TOPPING OUT RIGHT ARND 
60F WHICH WL BE A FEW DEGREES BLO NORMAL VALUES. 

ELONGATED TROF OF LOPRES EXTENDS FM HUDSON BAY SWRD INTO SRN 
WISCONSIN WITH BNDRY DRAPED ALONG THE MID-MS RVR VLY. THIS AREA OF 
LOPRES WL MV EAST TDA TWD AREA OF GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS. H5 S/WV 
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVR INDIANA WL EJECT NEWD TWD FA THIS AFTN AND 
BRING LIFT TO THE AREA RESULTING IN AREA OF LKLY POPS FOR CNY ZONES 
MID-LATE AFTN. COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH THIS WV WL BRING A SLGT CHC 
FOR THUNDER TO CWA AFT 18Z WITH CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG 
PER NAM AND GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM EDT UPDATE...
SAT MORNING IS WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP US
TRAPPED UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. UNDER THIS FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY EACH DAY. EXPECT TO REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR LVL LOW. A STRONG WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THIS TAKE PLACE AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BECOME LIKELY SUN MORNING/AFTERNOON. A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY MORNING A SFC RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL RESULT A MORE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE QUIET. 

TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE REGION SUN AND MON MORNING. PRECAUTIONS FOR SENSITIVE PLANTS
MAY BE NEEDED ON SUN AND MON AS FROST MAY OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEEKS TO CRNT MED RNG FCST BASED ON LATEST
HPC GUIDANCE. GIST OF FCST REMAINS THE SAME. PREV BLO...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. INITIALLY HIGH PRESS BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROF
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT IN THE VCNTY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS ACRS THE CWA WITH A
BKN-OVC MID DECK. SCT -SHRA WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MRNG/EARLY AFTN WHICH WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT SYR/RME BUT DO NOT
EXPECT RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ONCE THE CDFNT PASSES THIS
EVNG WITH A ROUND OF SHRA...XPCT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL IN THE WRLY
FLOW ACRS CNTRL NY...MAINLY AT ITH/BGM/SYR AND RME.

WINDS TDA SWLY INCRSNG TO 10-15 KTS...WITH G20 PSBL AT ELM/BGM/AVP
WHERE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE MOST LIKELY TDA...BECMG WRLY 10-20 KTS
POST FROPA THIS EVNG.


OUTLOOK...

SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. 

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...