653 
FXUS63 KJKL 281531 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1131 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS EXITED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...ALTHOUGH
THE COLD FRONT IS ONLY MAKING SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS AND IS NEAR OR
JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.
A RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND THE NEXT WAVE TO APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THUS...POPS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
THE EVENING. ALSO...HOURLY SKY...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FINE
TUNED TO REFLECT RECENT OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE FADING OUT NOW SO HAVE
BACKED OFF OF THEM TO JUST AN ISOLATED MENTION IN THE GRIDS. HAVE
TIMED THE CORE OF THE PCPN THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 12
TO 15Z. ALSO...FINE TUNED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS SHOWING UP WELL ON RADAR AS A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD KENTUCKY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FOUND OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE THROUGH CENTRAL
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS ADVANCE CONVECTION IS WORKING TO MOISTEN UP
THE VERY DRY AIR OVER EAST KENTUCKY AND THUS FAR NOT AMOUNTING TO TOO
MUCH ACCUMULATION. HAVE TIMED THE FRONT INTO EAST KENTUCKY AROUND 12Z
AND THROUGH BY 15Z...HIGHLIGHTING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER. IN THE MEANTIME...GUSTY SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE
TEMPERATURES ARE REMAINING QUITE MILD WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST TO
AROUND 30 IN THE FAR EAST. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER GUSTS IN SHOWERS...
WINDS ARE RUNNING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HIGHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE SHALLOW TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
TONIGHT. THIS NEXT TROUGH IMPRESSIVELY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND RIGHT OVER KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE NEARLY CLOSES
OFF AND IS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AT 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE
GEM AND GFS THE STRONGEST. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE A BIT WEAKER...BUT
THE PATTERNS AND TIMING ALL MATCH UP WELL. GIVEN THIS...HAVE GONE
WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND FOLLOW SPECIFICS FROM THE NAM12 AND
GFS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FOR STARTERS...SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM...WILL CROSS THROUGH ALL OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN ALONG
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND QUICKLY REACTIVATE OVER THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT. THIS NEXT WAVE...
DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
RETURN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO EAST KENTUCKY. THE
CENTER OF THIS LOW WILL PASS THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY DURING
THE DAY AND START TO PULL IN COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS
STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR THE COLUMN OF AIR COOLING ENOUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA TO RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
00Z SUNDAY SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THAT NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS USED THE BC/CONSSHORT AS A
STARTING POINT THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. AFTER
THAT USED AN ADJUSTED VERSION OF THE RAW NAM FOR TEMPS AND THE
BC/CONSALL FOR TD AND WINDS. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP RATHER WET AND IN
LINE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE. 

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A 
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS 
MOVING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEY AT THIS TIME AND MOVES UP THE 
EAST COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...MID LEVEL RIDGING CAUSES A 
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION 
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY. AFTER THIS...A BROAD CLOSED LOW 
CROSSES THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT 
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE DEEPENS AS IT THEN MOVES INTO THE MS 
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO BE IN DECENT 
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW TOWARDS THE 
END OF THE EXTENDED WHICH COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. 

IN THE LOWER LEVELS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN 
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE INTO THE 
AREA FAST ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. IN FACT...WITH THE 
SMALL LAYER OF DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME WET BULBING...THE 
COLDER AIR NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE...AND THE CONVECTIVE PROPERTIES 
OF THE SHOWERS...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW AT 35 DEGREES AT 
THE SURFACE. WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER AND THE OMEGA 
AVAILABLE...HAVE ALSO PUT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST 
WITH MAINLY THE BLUE GRASS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH AND 
EAST. THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO DRY OUT AS IT 
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE BEST DYNAMICS TAKE A FARTHER TRACK NORTH
AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES POP UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY HINT THAT THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS WILL NOT SHEAR OUT
AND SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE CHANCE IS THERE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY.

WITH MOST LIKELY A DRY PERIOD CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE SET UP 
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED WILL CHANGE THIS DRY PATTERN. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDING WARM 
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE OH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
APPROACHING POTENT SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO 
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS 
SET UP WILL BE ONE TO WATCH FOR HOW IT DEVELOPS. A LOT CAN CHANGE IN 
THE MODELS BETWEEN NOW AND THEN BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER 
IS PRESENT WITH THIS SET UP.    

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2014

A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS HAVE FADED OUT SO HAVE DROPPED
THEM FROM THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. WILL STILL SEE THIS FRONT AND
SOME LOWER CIGS AND VIS...MVFR...GO THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
WINDS...POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 25 KTS WITH THE FRONT...WILL SLACKEN
THROUGH THE DAY...FRIDAY...AS THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN...THOUGH...WITH CIGS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 4K FEET AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN
WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF LOWER CIGS AND VIS...
DOWN TO MVFR IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF