238 
FXUS61 KCAR 251951
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
351 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE CENTER OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST EAST
OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. 

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL EYES ARE ON THE POWERFUL LOW PASSING TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS WINDS THE STRENGTH OF A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE OFFSHORE AND IS NOT TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. THE LOW EXPLODES IN
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTH TO GEORGES BANK EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN
MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST, PASSING JUST OFF
NOVA SCOTIA LATE WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE LOW TRACK BUT HAVE BEEN
TRENDING EVER SO SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THE PAST FEW RUNS. THERE IS
MORE DISAGREEMENT ON MODEL QPF WITH THE GFS BEING NOTABLY LIGHT
AND THE NAM BEING QUITE HEAVY. ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND WENT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
BLENDED WITH THE QPF FROM THE RFC. GOOD AGREEMENT ON WINDS WHICH
WILL BE QUITE STRONG ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST.

INCREASED SNOW TOTALS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND WE ARE
EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS NORTHWEST TO THE REST OF
WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES, ISSUING WINTER STORM WARNINGS
ALONG I-95 FROM BANGOR TO HOULTON, AND ISSUING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR EVERYWHERE N/W EXCEPT
NORTHERN SOMERSET. ISSUING THESE BASED ON IMPACT OF COMBO OF
STRONG WIND AND SNOW. EXPECT SNOW TO BE EASILY BLOWABLE WITH SNOW
RATIOS FROM 15 TO 1 TO 20 TO 1 AND THE STRONG NORTH WINDS.

MAIN CONCERNS FOR FORECAST ERRORS INVOLVE BANDING IN DOWNEAST
MAINE WHICH COULD LEAD TO EVEN HEAVIER TOTALS THAN FORECAST, AND
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD.
HIGHEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS FOR ALONG AND JUST N/W OF I-95
REGARDING THE NW EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF STEADY ACCUMULATING SNFL WILL MOVE E OF THE FA WED
EVE AS THE INTENSE LOW HEADS OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLC...LEAVING IN
ITS WAKE...SCT SN SHWRS AND BLSN INTO THE OVRNGT HRS AS NW WINDS
REMAIN QUITE BRISK. PERHAPS PARTIAL CLRG WILL THEN OCCUR BY THU
MORN AS A NARROW SFC RIDGE APCHS AND THEN CROSSES THE REGION THU
AFTN.

HI CLDNSS WILL ALREADY BEGIN STREAMING FROM THE W LATE THU AS MID
LVL WARM ADVCN VERY QUICKLY SETS UP OVR THE FA WITH THE APCH OF A
S/WV AND SFC LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS. LGT SN WILL THEN SPREAD
EWRD INTO THE FA FROM QB THU NGT. WITH LLVL WARM ADVCN INCREASING
WITH TM THU NGT...OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE EARLY...AT OR JUST PRIOR TO
MDNGT...WITH TEMPS THEN SLOWLY RISING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
NGT. BY MID TO LATE MORN FRI...WARMER SFC-925 MB TEMPS SHOULD
TRANSITION SN TO RN BEGINNING ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
MAINE...AND THEN EVEN INTO N CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION BY FRI AFTN
WITH FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA GETTING A MIX OF RN/SN BEFORE PRECIP
TAPERS TO SHWRS. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES OF TMG BETWEEN THE FASTER
GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF...WE DID NOT GO ABV LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
EVENT AND KEPT QPF AND ASSOCIATED SNFL LGT FOR EACH 6 HR PD THU
NGT INTO FRI...WITH SN RATIOS 10 TO 12:1 THU NGT INTO FRI MORN AND
THEN MUCH LESS FOR FRI AFTN...DUE TO AT LEAST SOME RN.  

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LGT RN/SN OR RN/SN SHWRS WILL END W TO E ACROSS THE FA BY LATE
FRI NGT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS
FRONT WILL NOT BE ARCTIC...SO OVRNGT LOWS FRI NGT WILL BE MUCH
MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NGTS WITH HI TEMPS ON SAT REBOUNDING INTO
THE 30S MOST LCTNS AND EVEN LOWER 40S OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. 

ANOTHER LOW PRES SYS FROM THE LOWER OH VLY WILL POTENTIALLY SPREAD
MORE PRECIP TO SPCLY THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA LATER SAT NGT
INTO SUN. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING SWRD INTO THE FA FROM NRN QB
PROV...PRECIP TYPE MAY BEGIN AS RN/SN MIX AND THEN PERHAPS
TRANSITION TO ALL SN TO THE COAST BY ERLY SUN MORN. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...
WE KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN THE HI CHC TO LOW LIKELY RANGE OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS AND LOWER CHC POPS FURTHER N. ANY SN WITH THIS
EVENT SHOULD END SUN AFTN...BRINGING FAIR AND COLD CONDITIONS ON
MON AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR
BAR HARBOR WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR BANGOR AND HOULTON.
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND SOME FALLING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

SHORT TERM: LIFR TO IFR ALL SITES WITH ENDING SN BUT CONTD BLSN
WED NGT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY THU. CONTD VFR INTO THU EVE...THEN
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN LGT SN LATER THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN...AND THEN MIXED LGT RN/SN FRI AFTN INTO EVE. ALL SITES
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE FRI NGT AND CONT SO INTO SAT.
ANOTHER PD OF SNFL IS POSSIBLE SPCLY FROM KHUL SWRD SAT NGT INTO
SUN WITH POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS. 

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A POWERFUL LOW
PASSES OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 14 FEET LATE WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW, EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY COASTAL EROSION
PROBLEMS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: AFT THE STM WRNG WED EVE...WE WILL NEED A PD
OF GALE WRNGS OVRNGT WED...TRANSITIONING TO AN SCA ON THU. NOT SURE
WVS WILL DIMINISH BLO SCA THRESHOLDS...BUT WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY
SUBSIDE BY LATE THU INTO THU EVE...BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST
SCA RANGE LATE THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OF GALE
FORCE WINDS FRI MORN. KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BANGOR REACHED ZERO THIS MORNING, WHICH NOT ONLY BROKE THE DAILY
RECORD LOW, BUT ALSO WAS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR THIS
LATE IN THE SEASON. CARIBOU REACHED 8 BELOW THIS MORNING, WHICH
MAKES FOR 14 DAYS OF SUBZERO COLD THIS MARCH, WHICH TIES THE
RECORD FOR MOST MARCH DAYS BELOW ZERO, LAST SET IN 1939.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ001-002-004-005-010-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ006-011-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY 
     NIGHT FOR MEZ016-017-029-030-032.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN 
AVIATION...FOISY/VJN 
MARINE...FOISY/VJN
CLIMATE...FOISY