109 
FXUS64 KLUB 200929
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
JUST A BIT DIFFERENT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS
MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN PARTICULAR...AS THE TROUGH
AXIS APPROACH...A LEAD WAVE SHOOTS NEWRD THIS MORNING WITH A
SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS SPLIT
WAVE FEATURE SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE FORCED JUST
A BIT WEAKER AS A RESULT. AS OF 2 AM...COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WITH AN ARRIVAL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
SITTING NOW AROUND 13Z. COMPARED TO FROPA ESTIMATES 24 HOURS
AGO...THIS IS...IN FACT...2-3 HOURS SLOWER. HOWEVER...AS THE
SECOND WAVE APPROACHES THIS WILL GO AHEAD AND ACCELERATE THE FRONTAL
MOTION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND LIKELY CLEAR THE CWFA
BY AROUND 15Z. GIVEN THE TURBULENCE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP MENTION OF BLDU IN THE WX GRIDS THOUGH IT IS
NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE FROM A VISIBILITY PERSPECTIVE.

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE 
IMPACTS OF PACIFIC FRONT BEFORE THE CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES. WV 
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE LEAD WAVE KICKING ACROSS KS WITH A SLOW 
STRENGTHENING INDICATED OVER SERN CO FROM SECOND WAVE.   THIS WOULD 
SUGGEST THAT THE WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT LESS DRAMATIC THAN EARLIER 
ANTICIPATED.  BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE MAY NOT SEE ADVISORY LEVEL 
SPEEDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE 
CURRENTLY OUTLINED ADVISORY AREA TO LET IT RIDE.  THE SOUTHWESTERN 
SOUTH PLAINS COULD ALSO GET CLOSE AS WELL BEHIND THE PACIFIC BOUNDARY.  
ELSEWHERE...SPEEDS IN THE 20S WILL BE QUITE COMMON AS WINDS VEER 
TOWARD THE NORTH THIS MORNING.  AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX THIS 
AFTERNOON SO TOO WILL THE WIND SPEEDS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS THE DOMINATE FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD HOWEVER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UA RIDING ACROSS THE 
WRN CONUS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO VEER TO THE W-NW FLOW. THIS COULD BE OF
AN IMPORTANCE WRT TO TEMPS BUT WILL TALK MORE ABOUT THAT SHORTLY.
TODAY/S COOL DOWN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP TOMORROW /HIGHS IN
THE 70S/...THANKS TO THE RETURN OF SFC LEE TROUGHING AND THUS
BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS FILTERING IN A WARMER AIRMASS.

THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES PASSING BY TO OUR 
NORTH WILL SEND DOWN A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST OF SUCH 
FRONTS WILL BE SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DEPICTED 
TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS 
EITHER DISPLAY IT BARELY IMPINGING ON THE FAR SOUTH TX PANHANDLE
/PER THE GFS/ OR REMAINING NORTH OF THE REGION /PER THE NAM/. THE
ECMWF IS MOST CONSISTENT AND THUS PUSHING IT THROUGH THE
CWA...ALBEIT EXHIBITING RATHER LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND ONLY MINOR
COOLING /HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S/. NEXT FROPA IS ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS
AND COOLER AS SUGGESTED BY 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING TO AOA 2 DEGREES C
ACROSS THE NERN ZONES. WILL THEREFORE SEE HIGHS DIP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 50S NE TO THE MIDDLE 60S SW. CONCERNS OF MUCH COLDER AIR
NEXT WEEK IS HINTED AT BY MODELS...WITH VEERED FLOW ALOFT
PROVIDING A CORRIDOR FOR THE FILTERING OF CAA /ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SLIGHTLY BREEZY FROPA/. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL
BE...BUT MAINTAINING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S EARLY TO MID
WEEK STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT
RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS WITH NEXT WEEK/S FROPA...THOUGH RATHER
DRY MID-LEVELS SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE.

ALTHOUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE PLAGUED WITH SEVERAL FRONTAL 
PASSAGES...THERE WILL BE A FEW DAYS WHERE MODEST W-SW BREEZES AND 
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WILL OCCUR /BEYOND FRIDAY/...WHICH WILL 
BE ON MONDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEK. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
.DAY 1...
RECOVERIES HAVE BEEN RATHER POOR THIS MORNING WITH SOME STATIONS 
HAVING CLICKED OFF NOCTURNAL RED FLAG MINUTES.  THE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING /20 - 30 MPH/ THEN SUBSIDE 
AFTER MID-DAY.  SOME MODEST INCREASES IN RH SHOULD BE REALIZED THIS 
MORNING WITH DRYING EXPECTED /TO NEAR 15 PCT RH/ AS THE WINDS 
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RED FLAG MINUTE 
ACCUMULATIONS AND THUS WILL ELECT TO HANDLE FIRE THREAT TODAY WITH 
AN RFD.  NO DOUBT...FUELS ACROSS THE AREA ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR 
BURNING AND GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING...ANY 
STARTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY.  GREATEST RISK 
TODAY APPEAR TO BE ACROSS TWO AREAS.  NORTHEAST OF A DIMMIT TO 
CROSBYTON LINE AND SOUTHWEST OF A MORTON TO TAHOKA LINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  26  66  28  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
TULIA         52  25  68  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
PLAINVIEW     55  27  68  30  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LEVELLAND     58  31  71  32  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LUBBOCK       57  30  72  32  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
DENVER CITY   60  33  72  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
BROWNFIELD    60  32  72  33  72 /   0   0   0   0   0 
CHILDRESS     60  31  73  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SPUR          61  31  72  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ASPERMONT     62  33  73  39  72 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
TXZ024>026-030>032.

&&

$$

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