642 
FXUS64 KHGX 071156
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
556 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE APPROACH AND AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
HAVE EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFFECTING MANY TERMINALS. LOWER
DECKS AS MANY ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW EARLY MORNING SATURATED 1.5K
FT AND 5-6K FT LAYERS...SOME SITES ALREADY FALLING TO MVFR AT
12Z. OTHER THAN THE S/W PASSAGE...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE AS NORTHEAST
FLOW CONTINUES TO RIDE UP AND OVER COOL AND MOIST NEAR SURFACE
AIR...MAINTAINING THIS LOWER OVERCAST. VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL END
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH AN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND A WEAKENED WIND FIELD. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL HELP TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING
THIS MORNING OUT WEST AND FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED (COUNTIES LISTED BELOW) WITH
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN THAT COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
IF MORNING TEMPERATURES DO NOT WARM THE COUPLE OF DEGREES THAT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR SOME OF THE COUNTIES. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ADVISORY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING
IN JUST COLD DRIZZLE/RAIN. THIS MESS MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS AREA WIDE.
THE WEATHER GOES DOWNHILL ONCE AGAIN AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE NEXT SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
SOME RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM (SOME SPOTS CLOSE TO THE UPPER COAST POSSIBLY
GETTING CLOSE TO AN INCH)...THE BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY END UP OFF TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI. 42

&&

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL PULL AWAY 
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...ULTIMATELY RELAXING THE GRADIENT THAT HAS 
KEPT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES IN PLACE. A PASSING SHORTWAVE 
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP A MODERATE CHANCE FOR EITHER 
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN (SHOWERS) ALIVE. THIS WEEKEND'S WINDS WILL 
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT ONSHORE BY 
SUNDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. 
WESTERN TEXAS PRESSURES BEGAN TO LOWER EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK THAT 
WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY. A LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY 
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MARK THE RETURN OF STRENGTHENED OFFSHORE FLOW. 
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      35  32  63  43  66 /  30  20  10  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  34  63  47  68 /  30  40  10  10  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            41  40  60  53  65 /  30  40  10  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
     GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...WALKER...WASHINGTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE 
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND 
     TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO 
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31