000 
FXUS62 KTAE 070830
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2013


.NEAR TERM through This Afternoon...
A sharp cold front, separating a very warm airmass to the southeast 
from the much colder airmass to the northwest, currently stretches 
from Destin to Dothan to Americus. Temperatures ahead of the front 
remain in the lower 70s, with upper 40s to lower 50s in its wake. 
This boundary will continue to press slowly southeastward through
the day today.

As the upper trough in place over the western states reloads and
the ridge over South Florida rebuilds today, the progress of the
front will slow until it stalls late this afternoon somewhere near
a Tallahassee to Tifton line. With the front bisecting the
forecast area, expect to see close to a 30 degree range in
temperatures this afternoon, with highs near 80 over the
southeastern Big Bend and near steady temperatures in the lower to
mid 50s in SE Alabama. The trickiest temperature forecast will be
right along the front, and be largely dependent on exactly where
the boundary stalls this afternoon. Just ahead of the front,
expect highs to be in the lower 70s, with lower 60s just a few
miles to the west.

As for rainfall, weak isentropic lift over the shallow post-
frontal airmass will continue to generate isolated to scattered
showers through much of the day. Best chances will be right along
and behind the front. With little large-scale forcing to help out,
the rainfall will be mostly light.

&&

.SHORT TERM Tonight through Monday...
Water vapor loops this morning show a strong jet stream arcing
from Baja California to the Northeast US, centered well northwest
of our area. This flow pattern should continue into Monday with
the core of the jet (160+ knots at 250mb) redeveloping north of
the Ohio River Valley. The southwesterly flow aloft should prevent
any major changes over the area, with the aforementioned cold
front stalling and quickly losing its definition tonight. A front
redevelops by Sunday Night northwest of our area, with precip
generally occurring NW of the surface front (being forced by some
increasing isentropic ascent). With the strongest QG forcing
situated well northwest of our area, and the surface front also
expected to redevelop northwest, our expectations are for only
light and scattered rain chances during this period. PoPs were
trimmed slightly but not totally removed as models do show
periodic light QPF. Pressure falls to the northwest should create
S-SE flow at the surface Sunday. This should keep the abundant
low-level moisture in place, with continued concerns for overnight
and morning fog and low stratus. We included some fog again
tonight, but confidence was not high enough yet to include for
Sunday Night as well. The warm, moist air mass should keep
temperatures above normal throughout the period.

&&

.LONG TERM Sunday Night through Friday...
The period starts with a strong cold front moving into the area. 
There is some disagreement between the EURO and GFS as to the
timing of the front. The EURO shows the front approaching our
area on Monday evening with a gradual passage by Tuesday Night or
Wednesday morning. The GFS is bringing the front through about
12 hours earlier and quickly exiting the area. Cooler and drier
air will move in. Wednesday will be the coolest day before temps
begin to edge up. Thurs will be the driest day with PWATs down to
bone dry 0.20 inches. On Wednesday with highs in the low to mid
60s. Wednesdays lows will range from upper 30s in NW Alabama to
low 50s in the FL Big Bend. Temperatures remain cool through
Friday with mid 40s at night and upper 60s during the day.

&&

.AVIATION... 
Through 06 UTC Sunday Low clouds and fog are contributing to IFR 
conditions at all terminals early this morning. A front will cross 
KDHN, KABY, and KECP this morning, generating a few showers and 
ushering in light northwesterly flow. Visibility and CIGS will 
slowly improve this morning, but will likely remain MVFR or worse 
through the forecast period at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
The latest guidance came in with slightly lower wind speeds over
the next few days over the coastal waters, which means we are no
longer explicitly forecasting SCEC winds. Only about 20% of the
model guidance shows 15 knot winds over the western waters later
this afternoon and this evening. The cold front pushing into the
area today will stall and become poorly defined, with winds
becoming easterly overnight. These will veer to the south by
Monday, with a better chance of SCEC (and perhaps advisory level)
winds with another cold front Monday Night or Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level moisture will remain plentiful across the region into 
early next week, with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Total rainfall amounts over the next 5 days should range from
roughly an inch northwest of Dothan to less a quarter inch over
the southeastern half of the HSA. This will have only minimal
impacts on area rivers and streams.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  58  80  62  79 / 30  20  10  20  30 
Panama City   66  58  74  66  75 / 40  20  10  20  30 
Dothan        59  52  74  64  75 / 40  20  20  30  40 
Albany        66  55  75  62  77 / 40  30  20  30  40 
Valdosta      75  60  81  62  81 / 30  20  10  20  20 
Cross City    77  59  80  60  80 / 20  10  10  10  10 
Apalachicola  72  61  73  64  75 / 30  10  10  20  30 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal 
     Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Brooks-
     Decatur-Grady-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...None.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for coastal
     waters out to 60 NM from Apalachicola to Suwannee River.
 
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Lamers
LONG TERM...Walsh/Block
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Lamers
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...McDermott

874 
FXUS62 KTAE 070830
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2013


.NEAR TERM [through This Afternoon]...
A sharp cold front, separating a very warm airmass to the southeast 
from the much colder airmass to the northwest, currently stretches 
from Destin to Dothan to Americus. Temperatures ahead of the front 
remain in the lower 70s, with upper 40s to lower 50s in its wake. 
This boundary will continue to press slowly southeastward through
the day today.

As the upper trough in place over the western states reloads and
the ridge over South Florida rebuilds today, the progress of the
front will slow until it stalls late this afternoon somewhere near
a Tallahassee to Tifton line. With the front bisecting the
forecast area, expect to see close to a 30 degree range in
temperatures this afternoon, with highs near 80 over the
southeastern Big Bend and near steady temperatures in the lower to
mid 50s in SE Alabama. The trickiest temperature forecast will be
right along the front, and be largely dependent on exactly where
the boundary stalls this afternoon. Just ahead of the front,
expect highs to be in the lower 70s, with lower 60s just a few
miles to the west.

As for rainfall, weak isentropic lift over the shallow post-
frontal airmass will continue to generate isolated to scattered
showers through much of the day. Best chances will be right along
and behind the front. With little large-scale forcing to help out,
the rainfall will be mostly light.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Monday]...
Water vapor loops this morning show a strong jet stream arcing
from Baja California to the Northeast US, centered well northwest
of our area. This flow pattern should continue into Monday with
the core of the jet (160+ knots at 250mb) redeveloping north of
the Ohio River Valley. The southwesterly flow aloft should prevent
any major changes over the area, with the aforementioned cold
front stalling and quickly losing its definition tonight. A front
redevelops by Sunday Night northwest of our area, with precip
generally occurring NW of the surface front (being forced by some
increasing isentropic ascent). With the strongest QG forcing
situated well northwest of our area, and the surface front also
expected to redevelop northwest, our expectations are for only
light and scattered rain chances during this period. PoPs were
trimmed slightly but not totally removed as models do show
periodic light QPF. Pressure falls to the northwest should create
S-SE flow at the surface Sunday. This should keep the abundant
low-level moisture in place, with continued concerns for overnight
and morning fog and low stratus. We included some fog again
tonight, but confidence was not high enough yet to include for
Sunday Night as well. The warm, moist air mass should keep
temperatures above normal throughout the period.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Friday]...
The period starts with a strong cold front moving into the area. 
There is some disagreement between the EURO and GFS as to the
timing of the front. The EURO shows the front approaching our
area on Monday evening with a gradual passage by Tuesday Night or
Wednesday morning. The GFS is bringing the front through about
12 hours earlier and quickly exiting the area. Cooler and drier
air will move in. Wednesday will be the coolest day before temps
begin to edge up. Thurs will be the driest day with PWATs down to
bone dry 0.20 inches. On Wednesday with highs in the low to mid
60s. Wednesday's lows will range from upper 30s in NW Alabama to
low 50s in the FL Big Bend. Temperatures remain cool through
Friday with mid 40s at night and upper 60s during the day.

&&

.AVIATION... 
[Through 06 UTC Sunday] Low clouds and fog are contributing to IFR 
conditions at all terminals early this morning. A front will cross 
KDHN, KABY, and KECP this morning, generating a few showers and 
ushering in light northwesterly flow. Visibility and CIGS will 
slowly improve this morning, but will likely remain MVFR or worse 
through the forecast period at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
The latest guidance came in with slightly lower wind speeds over
the next few days over the coastal waters, which means we are no
longer explicitly forecasting SCEC winds. Only about 20% of the
model guidance shows 15 knot winds over the western waters later
this afternoon and this evening. The cold front pushing into the
area today will stall and become poorly defined, with winds
becoming easterly overnight. These will veer to the south by
Monday, with a better chance of SCEC (and perhaps advisory level)
winds with another cold front Monday Night or Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level moisture will remain plentiful across the region into 
early next week, with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Total rainfall amounts over the next 5 days should range from
roughly an inch northwest of Dothan to less a quarter inch over
the southeastern half of the HSA. This will have only minimal
impacts on area rivers and streams.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  58  80  62  79 / 30  20  10  20  30 
Panama City   66  58  74  66  75 / 40  20  10  20  30 
Dothan        59  52  74  64  75 / 40  20  20  30  40 
Albany        66  55  75  62  77 / 40  30  20  30  40 
Valdosta      75  60  81  62  81 / 30  20  10  20  20 
Cross City    77  59  80  60  80 / 20  10  10  10  10 
Apalachicola  72  61  73  64  75 / 30  10  10  20  30 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal 
     Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Brooks-
     Decatur-Grady-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...None.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for coastal
     waters out to 60 NM from Apalachicola to Suwannee River.
 
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Lamers
LONG TERM...Walsh/Block
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Lamers
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...McDermott