812 
FXUS64 KHUN 120603
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1203 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&& 

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1008 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013/
THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN GOOD CONDITION THIS
EVENING...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
-- WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA CONFIRMS THAT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED ACROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH A PREFRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST
LATER THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRUE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN
12/10-12Z...AND MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 12-14Z. WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT WILL
RETAIN THE DRY FORECAST AS REFLECTIVITY RETURNS NOTED ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ARE LIKELY RESULTING IN VIRGA OR SPRINKLES AT BEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...BASED ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ANTICIPATED TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE 10-14Z TIMEFRAME.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING.
VFR CIGS ARE NOW IN PLACE ARND 8 KFT...WITH SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NW EARLY THIS MORNING AS A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH
PUSHES SEWD. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS...THE TRUE COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE AT BOTH MSL/HSV BTWN 12/11-12Z...FOLLOWED BY A THICK
DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WITH CIGS IN THE 1800-2200 FT RANGE. NNW FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO 18G28 KTS FOLLOWING FROPA...ALONG WITH A VERY REMOTE
CHANCE OF SOME -RA OR SPRINKLES. STRATUS WILL RAPIDLY MIX OUT BY 20Z
AS DRY ARCTIC AIR SPREADS SWD...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NNE AND
DIMINISHING TO 13G23 KNOTS BY LATE AFTN. SKC CONDS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW EVENING...WITH CONTINUATION OF A NNE WIND ARND 10 KTS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$ 

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE 
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.