670 
FXUS63 KDDC 120851
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
351 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2013

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

A shortwave trough moving southeastward through the Great Lakes
region has pushed a cold front into northern Oklahoma early this 
morning. Meanwhile, an upper level low over the intermountain west
has resulted in deep, moist, southerly mid level flow from the
tropics into the southern high plains. This mid level moist influx,
combined with the pooling of low level moisture on the north side of the
front and weak disturbances on the eastern edge of the westerlies,
have resulted in batches of showers and thunderstorms. The intensity 
of the rainfall has diminished overnight with the loss of daytime 
heating, but batches of showers still remain along Interstate 70
and near Elkhart. 

Given the nearly moist adiabatic troposphere, daytime heating will
result in renewed thunderstorm activity today with locally heavy rainfall
possible. Severe weather is not expected due to the very weak shear
and near moist adiabatic thermal profile.  High temperatures may 
occur in early afternoon before thunderstorms become more 
widespread, with mid to upper 70s in Scott City, near 80F in Dodge 
City and mid 80s in south central Kansas. Thunderstorms will linger 
into tonight, and cloud cover and fairly high dewpoints will keep
temperatures from falling much below the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2013

The medium and extended period will be a challenge to forecast with 
better clarity with respect to mesoscale details probably coming in 
future model runs closer to the time of event. Thursday night will 
likely be wet across the area as a prolonged period of easterly 
surface upslope flow persists in tropical and moist adiabatic 
regime. We've increased rain and thunderstorm chances during this 
timeframe as well into the Friday timeframe given consistency in 
model runs. By Saturday the mid level moisture transport signal 
appears as modeled to have lifted north of the central High Plains 
region into Nebraska, with a dry southerly surface flow restored. 
The wet GFS was discounted on this day.  A surface cold front will 
then meander equatorward again sometime from Saturday evening onward 
through the weekend, and rain and thunderstorms chances begin to 
increase through early in the week as the next approaching westerly 
synoptic wave approaches. The relatively wet period will reflect in 
cooler temperatures, much more near normal for mid September. A 
warming trend will then follow through the middle of the week into 
the following weekend, with the potential for highs to be 
approaching 90s degrees again.             

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate a cold airmass breaking southward 
across the Northern Plains late next week, which would have the 
potential for an abrupt cool down from above normal to below normal 
temperatures. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

Light upslope flow behind an outflow boundary will persist today.
Given the rich and deep moisture, showers and thunderstorms are possible
just about any time, particularly at KHYS and KGCK. Ceilings and
visbys could briefly drop to IFR in the short duration
thunderstorms. Also, the ceiling at KGCK could briefly drop to IFR
or LIFR at through 13z due to the moist upslope flow and diurnal
cooling, but ceilings at KDDC/KHYS should remain VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  63  71  59 /  60  50  50  20 
GCK  77  62  70  60 /  60  50  60  30 
EHA  77  63  74  62 /  60  60  60  30 
LBL  79  63  76  61 /  60  50  60  30 
HYS  77  60  75  59 /  60  50  50  20 
P28  85  64  80  61 /  40  40  40  20 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch