431 
FXUS64 KLCH 032329
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2013

.AVIATION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF, WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TNITE AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY,
SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO EAST
TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING NNW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRING AT 21Z FOR ALL OF SE TX/C AND S LA...BUT EXTENDED IT FOR
THE COASTAL SE TX/S LA THRU 00Z FOR WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIKEWISE...SCA FOR
INLAND LAKES/BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM CONTINUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES
THRU 1 PM.

SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING LINE ACROSS C AND SC LA...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE E THIS EVENING AS THE DEEP LAYER COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTS SE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 

AS THE HIGH SETTLES EASTWARD TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BECOMING L&V AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS
COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (DEWPTS IN
THE MID 30S) WILL LEAD TO RECORD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT
MORNING. THIS WILL BREAK DAILY LOW TEMP RECORDS...AS WELL AS ALL
TIME MAY RECORDS FALLING AS WELL. SEE CLIMATE DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

IT IS MAY...AND THE SUN WILL DO GREAT RECOVERY IN TEMPS SAT
AFTERNOON...EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR LOWS SUN MORNING.

BY SUN...A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER HIGH WILL FILTER ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES SE ACROSS AR/MS. LIKELY TO SEE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW GIVING SCT/BKN CONDITIONS
ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S.

SLOW MODERATING TREND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
MON THRU THU. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF
OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE REGION BY FRI.

DML

MARINE...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT THRU 00Z FOR THE COASTAL LAKES/BAYS...AND 1 AM FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNING FOR TUESDAY.

DML

CLIMATE...
                                                  ALL TIME MAY 
LOCATION     FORECAST LOW    RECORD LOW            RECORD LOW  
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ALEXANDRIA LA     37          42 (2011)         38 ON 05/06/1954
BEAUMONT TX       42          45 (2011)         45 ON 05/04/2011
LAKE CHARLES, LA  41          46 (2011)         45 ON 05/03/1929
LAFAYETTE, LA     41          44 (1954)         42 ON 05/03/1929
NEW IBERIA, LA    42          43 (1954)         42 ON 05/12/1952
-------------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  73  50  71  52 /   0   0   0  10  10 
KBPT  42  74  52  73  53 /   0   0   0  10  10 
KAEX  37  70  46  68  50 /   0   0   0  10  10 
KLFT  41  72  49  69  51 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. 
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA 
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO 
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL 
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON 
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER 
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION 
     BAY.

&&

$$