331 
FXUS62 KFFC 061930
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS
PRETTY BENIGN. MIDLEVEL LOW EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT SO THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING. MAIN RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST SO WINDS DO NOT
GO COMPLETELY CALM OVERNIGHT...WHICH KEEPS TEMPS FROM REALLY
BOTTOMING OUT. THAT SAID THOUGH...TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW
FREEZING JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AND DOWN TO THE MID 20S IN
THE MOUNTAINS /AND ACTUALLY MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS/...SO OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL GEORGIA THAT DO NOT REACH FREEZING BUT NOT
ENOUGH /AT LEAST WITH CURRENT THINKING/ TO EXCLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
AREAS OR GROUPS OF COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING.

WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTH SO AGAIN WINDS
DO NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF...BUT A FREEZE WARNING MAY STILL BE
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE SHOULD START TO SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND STARTING
TOMORROW.

TDP

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO 
NEXT WEEK/S STORM SYSTEM AS THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE 
PROGRESSIVE GFS PATTERN. OVERALL THERE IS NO NEW MODEL TRENDS TO 
INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST 
GRIDS AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND 
SIGNALING A FAIRLY QUICK RECOVERY TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
STILL LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THAT SYSTEM.

20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EST WED MAR 6 2013/
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN
FOR THE WEEKEND WILL HELP OUR MAX TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT BACK
INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SITES REACHING THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA. THIS WILL PUT US NEAR CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND IN
REGARDS TO HIGHS.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED ISNT UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN BEFORE. HAVE GONE WITH THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION WHICH DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY. WITH MUCAPE
VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO
THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY.

11

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE... 
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH LOW VFR CIGS 4-5KFT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...GOING SCT AFTER ABOUT
20Z AND SKC THEREAFTER. EXPECT MID- LEVEL CLOUDINESS /15KFT/
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NNW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GUSTING
TO 30KT OR SO THIS AFTERNOON BUT DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING
TO AROUND 10KT AT ATL AND AROUND 5KT ELSEWHERE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          29  61  33  64 /   0   0   0   0 
ATLANTA         31  57  36  62 /   0   0   0   0 
BLAIRSVILLE     27  53  30  60 /   5   0   0   0 
CARTERSVILLE    29  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0 
COLUMBUS        32  61  37  65 /   0   0   0   0 
GAINESVILLE     30  56  35  61 /   0   0   0   0 
MACON           30  60  33  65 /   0   0   0   0 
ROME            30  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0 
PEACHTREE CITY  29  58  30  62 /   0   0   0   0 
VIDALIA         33  61  39  67 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR 
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...
DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...
FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...
JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...
MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...
WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...TDP