211 
FXUS62 KCHS 020611
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
111 AM EST SAT FEB 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO 
LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY 
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. IT WILL BE AN EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND. LATE THIS
EVENING. VERY FEW TWEAKS ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...TEMPS RUNNING
A BIT WARMER RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTATIONS MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO MUCH LIGHTER WINDS 
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 
LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING. THEN...AHEAD OF 
THE NEXT COLD FRONT...A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
PRODUCE INCREASING W/SW WINDS OVERNIGHT. THUS...TEMPERATURES COULD 
FALL CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES 
COULD BECOME UNSTEADY AND EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. 
OTHERWISE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. 

SUNDAY...ANY WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WINDS 
AND INSOLATION. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO 60-65 
DEGREES MOST AREAS...ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY. 
OF GREATER INTEREST...EXPECT A RETURN OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...AND 
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35 MPH COULD OCCUR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. 

CHILLER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH 
LOWS IN THE 30S COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A SHADE 
BELOW FREEZING AT MANY LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. THEN...HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTER WINDS AND MOSTLY 
SUNNY SKIES MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM 
PERIODS WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A 
WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE 
THAT IT WILL BE DRY. HIGHS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN 
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NE. GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE ISN/T TOO
STRONG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS...A BIT HIGHER WELL OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.

A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO VARIABLE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THAN...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND W/SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SCA
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP LATE BEYOND 20 NM. THEN...AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SUNDAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL
MARINE ZONES...AND SCA CRITERIA GUSTS COULD BECOME COMMON FOR A
FEW HOURS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...THEN A
MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WILL AGAIN TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL REPEAT
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT GUIDANCE DEPICTS
WINDS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

SEAS WILL FLUCTUATE IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN WIND SPEED...BUILDING 
TO 3-5 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FT POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY EVENING BUT ONLY RANGING FROM 1-2 FT NEARSHORE TO 2-3 FT 
BEYOND 20 NM AT OTHER TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS 
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...AFTER A DRY COLD 
FRONT PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG/GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO ACCOMPANY NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...