028 
FXUS64 KAMA 112235
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
435 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TODAYS HIGH WIND EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MAINLY RESTRICTED TO OK
PNHDL AND FAR WRN TX PNHDL EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NCNTRL TX PNHDL
BASED ON REPORTS RECEIVED AS OF THIS WRITING. WIND SPEEDS HAVE HAD A
BIT MORE DIFFICULT TIME REACHING EITHER HIGH WIND WARNING OR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR LOCATIONS S AND E OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE A LITTLE SLOWER IN MOVG OUT OF THE
AREA...WHICH WAS A CRITICAL ELEMENT IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH OF THE
STRONG WINDS WERE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM MID LEVELS. PLAN ON ALLOWING
ALL WIND HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL INVADE THE TX AND OK PNHDLS TNGT AND PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP WRN US TROF CONTINUES
TO AFFECT THE REGION. A FAIRLY DECENT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF IS
PROGGED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ECMWF...GFS...CANADIAN MODELS
CRANK OUT SOME LIGHT QPF DURG THIS TIME FRAME WHILE NAM IS DRY. IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP THREAT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN
OVERCOME THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AS SEEN BY SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY PRECIP THAT MAKES
IT TO THE GROUND WILL HAVE TO OCCUR VIA TOP DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS
AS SHORTWAVE TROF ZIPS ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO OVERCOME TO RESULT
IN MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION...HAVE COMPROMISED AND DECIDED TO USE THE
10 POP RULE FOR SAT AFTERNOON FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF
THE FCST AREA EXCEPT SERN TX PNHDL...THEN MENTIONED FLURRIES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IF IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO WHAT THE CURRENT FCST
PCKG SUGGESTS FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN US INTO CNTRL TEXAS DURG
THE WED AND THU TIME FRAME. ECMWF HAS SPED UP THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE NEW 12Z GFS. OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DO NOT DEPICT A CLOSED LOW SCENARIO. NEVERTHELESS...NO MATTER WHICH
MODEL IS PREFERRED...NONE OF THEM SUGGEST ANY PRECIP FOR TX AND OK
PNHDLS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...HAVE RETAINED A DRY EXTENDED
FORECAST. MODERATING TEMPS ARE SEEN FOR LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                19  33  13  29   9 /   0  10  10   0   0 
BEAVER OK                  17  31  11  29   9 /   0  10  10   0   0 
BOISE CITY OK              12  29   7  26   7 /   0  10  10   0   0 
BORGER TX                  21  33  14  29  13 /   0  10  10   0   0 
BOYS RANCH TX              17  33  11  29   8 /   0  10  10   0   0 
CANYON TX                  18  32  13  30   9 /   0  10  10   0   0 
CLARENDON TX               22  38  17  32  12 /   0   5  10   0   0 
DALHART TX                 13  31   8  27   8 /   0  10  10   0   0 
GUYMON OK                  16  30  11  28   9 /   0  10  10   0   0 
HEREFORD TX                17  34  12  30   8 /   0  10  10   0   0 
LIPSCOMB TX                20  32  12  30  10 /   0  10  10   0   0 
PAMPA TX                   20  33  14  30  11 /   0  10  10   0   0 
SHAMROCK TX                24  39  18  33  12 /   0   5  10   0   0 
WELLINGTON TX              26  43  20  34  14 /   0   5  10   0   0 

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...GRAY...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...
     MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...WHEELER.

OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$