044 
FXUS61 KCAR 231414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1014 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY WITH GRADUALLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10AM UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING...FOG ALONG THE COAST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN AROOSTOOK THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
EXTENDED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR COASTAL ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE ALSO REMOVED CONVECTION FROM FORECAST UNTIL 2PM. AFTER
2PM...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO
THE CROWN OF MAINE AND HELP SET OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
THE 12Z CAR RAOB DOES NOT PRESENT A COMPELLING CASE FOR STRONG STORMS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IN A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE COLD FRONT WHERE SFC-BASED CAPE MAY REACH UP TO 1000
J/KG. THE ENTRANCE REGION TO AN H300 JET WILL ALSO MOVE OVER
AROOSTOOK COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONT. BULK SHEAR ALSO
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL STICK WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS POINT BUT AN ISOLATED CELL COULD BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO
SEVERE LEVELS WITH WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ACTIVITY
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

630 AM UPDATE...AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF DOWNEAST MAINE THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS
OF FOG DOWNEAST BUT IT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM OR SO. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S DOWNEAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SWRD
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRI AM WILL CONT TO BUILD EWRD ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRI. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDS
W/ DRY WX...COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND HUMIDITIES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S N AND NW TO NEAR 80 DOWNEAST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD CREST THE FA FRI NGT W/ CLR SKIES AND
LGT WINDS...SETTING UP IDEAL RAD COOLING CONDS W/ FCST LOWS ON THE
COOL NEARLY AUTUMN LIKE SIDE W/ LOWER TO MID 40S N TO THE LOWER
50S DOWNEAST. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS E OF THE AREA ON SAT W/ DRY WX
CONTG. A RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES
OVER FRI W/ HUMIDITIES REMAINING COMFORTABLE.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE REMAINS E OF THE AREA SAT NGT THU MON W/ A CONTG S TO SW
FLOW ALLOWING GRADUALLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO CONT
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL N OF THE
AREA SAT NGT INTO SUN COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
N...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED INTO MON. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W LATE MON W/ THE BEST
CHC POPS ADVERTISED FOR THE FAR W AND NW MON AFTN. THIS FRONT
CONTS TO APPROACH MON NGT AND SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATER MON NGT
INTO TUE. SFC BASED CAPES...SPCLY DURING THE AFTN HRS...SUPPORT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR FAR SERN AREAS
LATE TUE W/ COOLER HIGH PRES RETURNING FOR LATER TUE NGT THRU WED...
LOADED GMOS WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE W/ POPS BUT MAY CHARACTERISTICALLY
MAY BE TOO COOL W/ TEMPS SPCLY SUN AND MON W/ THE WARM AND HUMID
SRLY FLOW... 
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS TO IFR/LIFR AT
TIMES THIS MORNING MAINLY KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE NGT/ERLY
AM FOG. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SRLY FLOW MAY INTRODUCE SOME
COASTAL FOG/STRATUS INTO OUR SRN TAF SITES LATER IN THE PD.
&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE 10AM...
ADDED AREAS OF FOG THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING UNTIL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARM MOIST AIR IS DRAWN OVER THE
RELATIVELY COLDER WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED THIS MORNING TO 1 TO 3 NM IN
AREAS OF FOG.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW