320 
FXUS61 KCAR 312327
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
727 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 1925 EDT: ISOLATED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS HAD FIRED IN
QUEBEC PROVINCE NORTHWEST OF ESCOURT STATION AROUND 7 PM. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES
1,3 AND 4. RAIN FROM THE APPROACHING COASTAL STORM CAN BE SEEN ON
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK GOOD WITH THIS
UPCOMING EVENT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COULD OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. THE LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING
DOWNEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC PROVINCE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS HELPING TO INITIATE CONVECTION. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH WESTERN MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE FRIDAY THAN
THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THU/FRI, THOUGH
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.

MODELS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR 12Z GFS, WHICH
BRINGS A SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THU.
DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION SINCE IT IS AN OUTLIER WITH OTHER RUNS OF
ITSELF AND WITH OTHER MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STILL STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING LIKELY CONTINUING TO MOVE 
EAST...EXPECT PRECIP TO BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION. 
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE LINGERING SURFACE 
BOUNDARY MAY BE ALL IT TAKES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. SO 
WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL 
LIKELY BE RAIN-FREE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 
WITH THE GEM-HEM THE FASTEST BRINGING IT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
THE GFS THE SLOWEST...SHOWING REGION OF WAA PRECIP MONDAY WITH THE 
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE 
BROAD BRUSHED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY REDUCED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TONIGHT...THOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP DOWNEAST LATER TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPING RAIN AND FOG. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY REDUCED CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY OCCUR WITH ANY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING DAYTIME HOURS THU AND
FRI. HOWEVER...NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE MVFR AND
IFR. ALSO DURING THE DAY...LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
SEAS COULD APPROACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRI, WITH ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...OKULSKI/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...RUNYAN
AVIATION...OKULSKI/NORCROSS
MARINE...OKULSKI/NORCROSS/FOISY