084 
FXUS61 KRLX 150946
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
540 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...WITH LOCAL DOWNPOURS 
INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS 
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID SUMMER MUGGY AIR IN FULL CONTROL TODAY.  00Z NAM WAS THE 
QUICKEST IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF THE 
WEAKENING 500 MB SHORT WAVE.  THE AXIS OF THAT SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE 
FM CLE TO IND BY 18Z...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE EAST.
OUR FORECAST WILL BE A BIT SLOWER IN INCREASING POPS THIS MORNING 
THAN THE 00Z NAM...TOWARD THE ECMWF.

WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE MAXIMUM AXIS IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT 
DAWN...STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS AT THE CRACK OF DAWN IN OUR OHIO 
VALLEY COUNTIES.  THINKING CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH POPS 
INCREASING INTO LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO BY 15Z...THEN AXIS OF 
HIGHEST POPS CROSSING I-79 CORRIDOR 18-21Z...THE LINGERING IN 
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES 23Z.  STEERING CURRENT EXPECTED FROM WSW AROUND 20 
TO 25 KNOTS...SO FLOW MAY BE FAST ENOUGH...BUT STILL CONCERNED ABOUT 
AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD ON A CREEK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS 
EVENING...SOMEWHERE IN OUR COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN THE WETTEST SINCE 
EARLY FRIDAY.  WILL BE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT 
POSSIBILITY...TO INCREASE AWARENESS.  YET...COULD ALSO SEE THE 
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND BEING RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF 
THE CONVECTION...TO LIMIT THE INTENSITY A BIT.  BUT WITH 
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES...A RAIN RATE OF 1.5 INCHES IN 
30-45 MINUTES REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...A SHORT TRAIN COULD THEN
PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES IN SAY 1-2 HOURS.  AGAIN...EXPECT THIS WOULD 
BE AN ISOLATED AREA...IF IT DOES OCCUR...NOT WIDESPREAD...WHICH IS 
USUALLY THE CASE IN SUMMER FLASH FLOOD EVENTS. 

HAVE POPS LOWERING FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.  THINKING LOTS OF 
LEFTOVER CLOUDS LINGERING OR SOME STRATUS REFORMING.  ANOTHER 
DIFFICULT LATE NIGHT FOG FORECAST. 

OF COURSE...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST AT THE MERCY OF THE 
SHOWERS. DID INCREASE READINGS A BIT SE OF CRW FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM STARTS WITH DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH RIDGE 
BUILDING TO THE WEST. MODELS TRY TO SHOW ONE LAST PIECE OF UPPER 
LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH ON MONDAY...SO WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING 
DIURNAL POPS MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TUESDAY...WITH NAM 
TRYING TO DROP A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OUT OF CENTRAL OHIO EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING...THIS IS SOMETHING NEW IN THE 18Z/00Z RUNS SO NOT 
BUYING INTO IT JUST YET. INSTEAD WILL SIDE WITH GFS/ECMWF WHICH SHOW 
SOME DIURNAL ACTIVITY LATER TUESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE SURFACE FRONT 
WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS 
THROUGH THE DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM 
SIDE...WITH AROUND 90 IN THE LOWLANDS...AND AROUND 80 IN THE 
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPR TROF AMPLIFIES OVER NE CONUS IN THE EXTENDED WITH SFC FRONT 
PROGGED TO CROSS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP LKLY 
POPS WITH THIS. WITH PWATS SURGING AHEAD OF FRONT...DOWNPOURS LOOK 
LKLY WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR OVERWHELMS COLUMN LATE NEXT 
WEEKS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VAD WINDS AT 925 MB AROUND 15 KNOTS...HELPING TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF
PREDAWN FOG.  STILL SOME PATCHES OF THICKER FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH
12Z.

WITH SHOWERS FORMING AROUND 09Z IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...WAS A BIT 
FASTER INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 
THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE 
FURTHER EAST...BY 18Z. DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT DURATION AND WHEN TO 
DECREASE COVERAGE...SINCE THIS IS NOT ANY ORGANIZED FRONT...BUT TRY 
TO SINK THE MAIN BATCH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AND 
SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES BY 23Z/00Z.  DO HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS NEAR 2 
THSD FT DEVELOPING IN THE MUGGY AIR...WITH WIDESPREAD VSBY NEAR 3 
MILES IN ANY MODERATE SHOWER.  LOCAL DOWNPOURS ARE EASILY 
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS...BUT DID NOT TRY TO TIME 
THOSE SPECIFICS YET.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION...LOTS OF 3 AND 4 MILES IN FOG AND 
CEILINGS STILL 2 TO 3 THSD FT DURING THE LATE EVENING...SAY 03Z TO 
06Z...THEN HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT AND VSBY 1 TO 3 
MILES IN FOG 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.  HIGHER TERRAIN CEILINGS MAY BE AOB 
1 THSD FT 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION  AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING MAY VARY FROM DETERMINISTIC TAFS.  DURATION OF 
CONVECTION AT ANY ONE SITE MAY BE LESS THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/15/12
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR IN CEILINGS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY...IN AFTERMATH 
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB