749 
FXUS61 KCAR 192237
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
637 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE: SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY
THIS EVENING AS WEAK IMPULSE SHEARS APART AS IT RIDES THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE. NEAR TERM MODELS (HRRR/RUC) INDICATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SO WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE TO ISOLATED POPS
FOR LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND STRATUS.

ATTM, NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED W/THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO FIRE UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. 

LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SB CAPES OF 700+ JOULES
W/MOISTURE UP THROUGH 700 MBS ACROSS THE FAR W AND N BUT AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND EVENING APCHS, THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO
850MBS AND BELOW AND ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES IN THE LLVLS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE CLOSE TO 6.0 C/KM AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL FORCING INITIALLY BUT THAT IS GONE
BY 06Z AS THE FRONT APCHS. ATTM, DECIDED ON ISOLD TSTMS AND KEPT
POPS NO MORE THAN 40% ACROSS THE FAR N AND W FOR SHOWERS. 

SKY COVER WILL BE A CHALLENGE TONIGHT AS S FLOW INITIALLY WILL
ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS INTO THE MLT AND HUL REGIONS. FURTHER N AND W, WIND
VEERING MORE SW OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS.
FOG POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST AND DECIDED
TO KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG IN THERE FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER N AND
W, KEPT FOG OUT DUE TO WIND SPEEDS STAYING UP FOR ONE AND DIRECTION
MORE WSW BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
READINGS SOME 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SMALL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTH WILL MOVE 
EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A WEAK FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE DIVIDING WARM 
AIR TO THE NORTH FROM HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
SOME MOISTURE WILL CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND A
THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT CENTRAL OR DOWNEAST AREAS JUST ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY SEEMS TO
BE DURING THE MIDDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL LOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL PULL
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG
THE WARM FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS IN THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN APPROACH ON FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING...WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE REGION SATURDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE LOW MOVES EAST. A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING
TROF IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHILE AN
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING LATER MONDAY. THE
SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING A STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT. 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM GOING TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN IFR
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST CHC FOR IFR WILL BE FROM HUL ON
SOUTH TO BGR AND BHB. CONDITIONS WILL GO VFR AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY
W/BGR AND BHB TAKING A WHILE LONGER TO IMPROVE.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IN COASTAL FOG LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. FOG MAY LINGER FOR
A WHILE EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD THEN OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: KEPT THE MENTION OF THE SWELL IN THE FCST TONIGHT AS A
8-9 SECOND PERIOD IS OCCURRING ATTM. THE LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE SWAN GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SEAS REACHING 5 FT TONIGHT
W/THE SOUTHERLY SWELL. DECISION WAS TO BRING SEAS UP A FOOT W/A
RANGE OF 3-5 FT TONIGHT. SEAS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SUBSIDE LATER
WEDNESDAY AS REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS GO OFFSHORE.

SHORT TERM: SWELL FROM A SMALL SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA WILL RESULT IN SEAS NEAR 5 FT EARLY WED.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...FOSTER/HEWITT
MARINE...FOSTER/HEWITT/BLOOMER