997 
FXUS61 KCAR 080745
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
345 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND. &&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. 11-3.9 FOG CHANNEL
AT 315 AM SHOWING FOG ALONG THE WESTERN DOWNEAST COAST AS WELL AS
BETWEEN BANGOR AND HOULTON. EXPECT THE FOG TO FILL IN A BIT MORE
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FIRE
LATE THIS MORNING AND AROUND NOON AND BEGIN OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EAST INTO
THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND
COMING OFF THE OCEAN...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF TODAY'S
CONVECTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED RATHER THAN ELEVATED IN ALL AREAS
EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...JUST CANNOT SEE THE
STORMS BEING STRONG OR SEVERE. IF ANYTHING IS TO BECOME
STRONG...IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH WOODS AND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. 

FOR TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS INTO A STEADIER
RAIN...WITH A DECENT SOAKING OF AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST
PLACES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN GOING LONGER THAN OTHERWISE
WOULD BE THE CASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE NEW LOW WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM12...GFS40....SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZED POP GRIDS THEN HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE NAM12 AND GMOS DURING DAY AND ONLY GMOS AT NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE GMOS AND HAVE INCREASED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES. FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE GFS40 AND NAM12.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND BUILD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL
GRIDS WITH GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
MOSTLY FOR SMOOTHING. WILL ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HIGHER BY
SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL LOW CIGS AND FOG FOR
KBHB...KBGR...AND KHUL EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR IT HAS MANAGED
TO AVOID THESE PRECISE SITES...BUT IT IS LINGERING OUT THERE AND
EXPECT ESPECIALLY KBHB AND KBGR TO AT LEAST SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FOG EARLY THIS PERIOD BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP AND HELPS TO BURN IT
OFF. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS/IFR COULD PERSIST LONGER
THAN INDICATED IN TAF FOR KBHB...BUT CONSIDERING THE LOW CLOUDS
HAVE NOT MOVED INTO KBHB YET AND MODELS ARE NOT HITTING THEM
HARD OR AT ALL...OPTED TO CLEAR THEM TO VFR AFTER 12Z. 

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY THEN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT AND SEAS TO 4 FT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS WINDS. WILL LOWER WIND
SPEED BY 10 PERCENT. FOR WAVES WILL USE THE WNA/4 TO INITIALIZE
GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 1 FOOT TUESDAY TO BETTER FIT GMOS
WINDS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE
MARINE...FOISY/MIGNONE