635 
FXUS64 KFWD 290809
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS FORTUNATELY REMAINED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE FRONT BACKED NORTH
AS EXPECTED AFTER DARK YESTERDAY EVENING...BUT HAS SINCE SHOWN A
SLOW REVERSAL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY DUE FROM STORM OUTFLOW. 
00Z FWD SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW A STOUT CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SIT JUST OFF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALOFT 
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH
ANCHORED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALOFT LOOK ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS IF
ISOLATED STORMS CAN INITIATE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS LATE TODAY. THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO
TO YESTERDAY WHERE IF A DELAY OCCURS IN INITIATION...THEN LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
AS SUCH...WE HAVE KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF I-20
INTO MONDAY WHERE THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED. THE
CAP SHOULD KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH.

NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WSW FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH NO SURFACE FOCUS AND THE
CAP MAINTAINING OVERHEAD. THE EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LEE-
SIDE LOW WILL KEEP THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE AS THE THE MAIN SURFACE
FOCUS WITH NO EXPECTATION OF ANY ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS DUE TO THE CAP. 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COMPLETELY LOST
SIGHT OF ANY UPPER ENERGY WITHIN THE THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH FOR
NEXT WEEKEND. INSTEAD...THEY NOW SHOW A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE
WHICH LIKELY MEANS A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY WARM...BREEZY AND
DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

BELIEVE MOS GUIDANCES ARE TRENDING WITH THE COOLER CLIMATOLOGY ON
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS NEARBY
OVER WEST TEXAS AND WILL GO ABOVE MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I-35 WHERE READINGS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S WILL LIKELY
BE COMMON. 

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  86  70  86  70  88 /  10  10  20  10  10 
WACO, TX              87  72  88  70  89 /  10  10  10  10  10 
PARIS, TX             83  67  82  67  84 /  10  20  20  10  10 
DENTON, TX            84  68  86  69  88 /  10  20  20  10  10 
MCKINNEY, TX          84  68  84  68  85 /  10  10  20  10  10 
DALLAS, TX            86  71  86  70  88 /  10  10  20  10  10 
TERRELL, TX           84  70  85  69  86 /  10  10  20  10  10 
CORSICANA, TX         85  70  85  69  87 /  10  10  10  10  10 
TEMPLE, TX            86  70  87  69  89 /  10  10  10  10  10 
MINERAL WELLS, TX     84  67  86  67  89 /  10  10  20  10  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/