397 
FXUS62 KMHX 191327
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
927 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BUILD WEST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM MON...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED...MAINLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME AREAS REPORTING DENSE FOG...1/4 MILE OR
LESS...AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE THREAT WITH SPS. THE FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MON...CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING A BIT FASTER THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE FOG WILL BURN OFF
ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING. CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN WV/VA IS
SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

BASED OVERNIGHT FCST OFF OF PERSISTENCE...AS STAGNANT HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS WILL MEAN FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BY
MIDNIGHT AND COULD BECOME DENSE IN INLAND AREAS LATE. TEMPS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...ANOMALOUS WARM
PATTERN WILL CONT THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MDLS ALL SHOW WEAKNESS ALOFT
JUST OFF THE COAST TUE THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS W INTO WED.
SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE FROM PERSISTENCE TYPE FCST WITH MAINLY
WDLY SCT CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER THE INLAND AREAS THRU FRI
WHERE BEST INSTAB IS EXPECTED. MOST OF THE MDLS SHOW BETTER
MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL WTRS/IMD CST TUE NIGHT SO CONT PREV FCST
OF SMALL POP THESE AREAS. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE VERY MILD TEMPS
WILL CONT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
WEEKEND FCST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS MDLS HAVE NOT LOCKED ON HOW TO
HANDEL THE DEEP UPR LOW THAT WILL EMERGE FROM THE SW/SRN PLAINS.
IT DOES LOOK UNSETTLED SO HAVE CHC POPS SAT AND SUNDAY...TEMPS
WILL LIKELY GRAD COOL AS HGTS DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM MON...FIRST FEW FRAMES OF VISUAL SATELLITE LOOP SHOW
LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT VFR BY LATE
MORNING ALL LOCATIONS. 

PREV DISC...SCT-BKN VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR TODAY WITH LIGHT/VAR
WINDS. SIMILAR SETUP FOR MON NIGHT WITH FOG/BR DEVELOPING AS EARLY
AS 5Z SO ADDED MENTION OF FOG IN TAFS AFTER THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRI/
WEAK GRDNT WILL CONT OVER THE REGION THRU MID WEEK WITH LIKELY
CONT THREAT OF MAINLY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORN FOG/ST AND POSS
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY PRECIP SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED AND MAINLY INLAND
DURING THE AFTN SO EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE FROM MID MORN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATER IN THE WEEK OFFSHORE HIGH PRES BECOMES
DOMINANT WITH MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW LOW LVL FLOW WHICH TYPICALLY
LOWERS THREAT FOR FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY & TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM MON...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

PREV DISC...WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE
COAST. LIGHT FLOW WITH GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS (POOR SAILING
CONDITIONS) EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUE THROUGH FRI/
RATHER GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU THE PERIOD. VERY
WEAK GRDNT EXPECT INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WEAK SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY.
THRU MID TO LATE WEEK HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL BECOME DOMINANT WITH
LIGHT SE FLOW WED BECOMING S/SW THU AND FRI. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE
MAINLY AOB 15 KTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...HSA/BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...HSA/BTC/RF/TL