208 
FXUS61 KCAR 042300
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
600 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TONIGHT...BRINGING A SLOW MOVING ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MONDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHGS TO FCST GRIDS IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM ATTM. ONE
OF THE BIGGER CHALLENGES OVRNGT WILL BE LOCATING THE ARCTIC FRONT
AS IT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE REGION FROM ERN QB...WITH THE BROAD
FRONT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH FROM THE TYPICAL NGT TM
SFC BASED INVSN AT OUR OBS SITES. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FLOW ALF AHEAD OF
THE S/WV TROF FROM SRN QB NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE N TO S ORIENTATION
OF THE SFC FRONT. WE DID INCLUDE LATEST OBSVD SFC TEMPS AND MERGED
THEM TO FCST HRLY TEMPS AT 06-07Z.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A TROF EXTENDING WEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
AROUND AN INCH OR SO THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DIMINISHING. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTH RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY DRY AND MILDER THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... TROF OF
LOW PRES JUST TO THE E OF THE FA MON EVE. WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE N AND E MON NGT ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING -SHSN ACROSS
THE FAVORED NRN AREAS. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN DCRSG FROM W-E
OVERNIGHT W/ THE -SHSN DIMINISHING DURING THE EVE HRS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES RIDGED N-S FROM WRN QUEBEC TO THE GULF
STATES MON EVE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EWRD INTO OUR FA THRU TUE THEN
MOVE E OF THE FA ON WED. INITIALLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THINGS THRU
TUE NGT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS THRU TUE
NGT. BY WED...A RETURN SWRLY FLOW OF MUCH MILDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER THE RIDGE CRESTS THE AREA LATE TUE NGT
AND SHIFTS E OF THE AREA ON WED. IN ADDITION...SHOULD SEE A WARM
FRONT LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA W/ SOME CLOUDS AND A SLGT CHC OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FAR NW BY WED AFTN... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 40 N TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S S ON WED...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
ON THE POSITION OF THE MAIN SYSTEMS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE ERN SEABOARD...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE LOWS
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO TEXAS. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT FURTHER INTO THE N ATLANTIC AS THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY MOVES
INTO NRN QUEBEC. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXTEND SW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THURSDAY THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WRN
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH MAINE
TO A 2NDRY LOW OVER AR. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATERS. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MAINE. THE 2NDRY LOW OVER AR
DEEPENS AND MOVES TO SRN IL (GFS) THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE LOW OVER
AR WITH A NEW LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
GFS AND ECMWF NO LONGER HAVE A SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GFS MOVES A
NEW LOW SE ACROSS HUDSON BAY TOWARDS SE QUEBEC. THE ECMWF DEEPENS
THE LOW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND MOVES IT TO COASTAL MAINE.
BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN THEIR 2NDRY LOWS IN THEIR RESPECTIVE
LOCATIONS. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MODELS TOOK A DIFFERENT TRACK
TO GET THERE...HOWEVER THE SOLUTION FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
SIMILAR. THE GFS MOVES ITS LOW INTO THE GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE...BEGINS TO BUILD HIGHER PRESSURE INTO WRN ME. THE ECMWF
MOVES ITS LOW TO PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...BEGINS TO BUILD HIGHER
PRESSURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER LOW
WILL MOVE SE OUT OF THE HUDSON BAY REGION...THE HIGHER PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE OFF THE COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CANADIAN MARITIMES...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA.

LOADED GMOS...ADJUSTED THE SKY AND POP GRIDS TO BETTER SUPPORT
ONE ANOTHER. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. PLUS
15 PERCENT FOR WIND GUSTS OVER LAND...20 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT KBGR/KBHB IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THESE CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL TAF SITES LATER MONDAY. 

SHORT TERM: A PERIOD OF MVFR IS PSBL LATE THU THRU THU NGT...SPCLY
ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS MAY LINGER INTO MON EVE AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT SCA ACCORDINGLY. SCA CONDS MAY
REDEVELOP ON WED IN INCRSG SW FLOW AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
OFF TO THE E AND A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/KHW