720 
FXUS65 KTFX 211123
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
425 AM MST SAT JAN 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE COLD AIRMASS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
CONTINUES TO ERODE AND RETREAT NORTH AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES
WESTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE A PROBLEM TODAY AS TO THE TIMING OF
WHEN THE WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROF WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TODAY. HAVE
CANCELED THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AS
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT SHOULD REMAIN 
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. AREA OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE A PROBLEM ALONG 
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT TODAY. STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL 
CONTINUE OVER NORRIS HILL AND HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR 
THAT LOCATION THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON TODAY. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT 
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA CONTINUES AND ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY 
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BEAVERHEAD...MADISON AND GALLATIN 
COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FOR 
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6K FEET. RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE 
PLAINS THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY 
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE ON MONDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT 
WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW 
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL 
AVERAGES MOST AREAS TODAY AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS. HIGHS WILL BE 
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE AGAIN ON MONDAY. 
EMANUEL

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THUS...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS MOST
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK ON THE LOW SIDE EACH DAY...BUT
A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN A 12/24 HOUR PERIOD IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST DAYS TO SEE PRECIPITATION AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...AND THEN AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0545Z.
ONE WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY 
WHILE ANOTHER ONE MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE TAF SITES EXPECT 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST LOCAL MVFR 
CONDITIONS IN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCES.
PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE ANYTHING FROM FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN TO 
SNOW. BEST THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL BE AT KHVR THOUGH IT CAN 
NOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE. DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING RAIN DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE 
PRIMARILY RAIN. ALSO CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN SHOULD IT OCCUR FEEL 
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT WILL LAST LESS THAN AN HOUR EXCEPT POSSIBLY AT 
KHVR. MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL BE OBSCURED IN SNOW 
AND BLOWING SNOW. ALSO EXPECT THE PLAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT 
COULD SEE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
SATURDAY EVENING. ALSO FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT COULD SEE WIND 
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60KTS. BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  49  26  37  20 /  20  10  10  10 
CTB  42  23  34  14 /  10  10  20  10 
HLN  37  23  36  16 /  40  20  20  30 
BZN  40  19  34  12 /  50  20  20  20 
WEY  34  10  20   6 / 100  90  50  50 
DLN  47  19  31  14 /  50  20  20  40 
HVR  32  21  35   9 /  30  10  10  10 
LWT  44  23  32  12 /  20  20  10  10 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR 
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR BEAVERHEAD...GALLATIN...MADISON.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ROUTE 287 
OVER NORRIS HILL IN MADISON COUNTY.

FLOOD WARNING FOR BROADWATER COUNTY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...BRUSDA
AVIATION...BLANK

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS