908 
FXUS61 KRLX 202338
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
656 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN 
MONDAY...THEN MEANDERS BACK AND FORTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR IN ITS 
WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVING IN TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ALONG WITH A 
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.  THESE SHOWERS ARE STILL HAVING A HARD TIME 
STAYING TOGETHER ONCE THEY ENTER THE CWA DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS 
OVERHEAD.  WINDS ARE SLOWLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW 
MORE MOISTURE TO ENTER THE AREA.  AS THAT HAPPENS...SHOWERS WILL 
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS 
WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN WV TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS TO THE 
NORTH. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...THEREFORE 
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA 
TOMORROW MORNING...LEADING TO A CLOUDY AND RAINY MONDAY.  MODELS 
INDICATE A NOTABLE INSTABILITY INCREASE TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON...THEREFORE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER IN PLACE FOR 
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THE RAIN...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A 
MILD DAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA GETTING INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN A SIMILAR SITUATION AS YESTERDAY GIVEN THE FRONTAL POSITIONING 
AND OSCILLATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THE COLD FRONT 
STALLS OVER THE COAL FIELDS...EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LIFT BACK NORTH 
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOULD BE AT ITS FURTHEST POINT SOUTH TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT 
WILL BE PRETTY MUCH CWA WIDE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES 
INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN WEST 
VIRGINIA. TRIED TO PLAY UP A POP GAP IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL WAVES 
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE BEYOND 
THE SHORT TERM.

KEEP THE THUNDER THREAT GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN WEST NORTHWEST 
STEERING FLOW. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE KEY INTO THE DURATION OF 
THIS FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS IN 
PLACE TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING AN 850MB JET PUSHING 
50KTS. GUSTY WINDS IN CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF THE 
DECENT FLOW ALOFT. MESOSCALE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE FORECAST 
IN A NOWCAST TYPE SETTING BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 

CONTINUING WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TUESDAY...AND MAX T 
VALUES DO CARRY A BIT OF A BUST POTENTIAL BEING DEPENDENT ON THE 
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN 
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECTING TO REMAIN MILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY...BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS WARM GIVEN THE HIGH POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LESS THAN AVG IN THE EXTENDED...PARTICULARLY ONCE INTO 
THE WEEKEND. ISSUE SURROUNDS SPEED OF INBOUND PACIFIC ENERGY AND 
EXODUS OF EASTERN CONUS TROF. ELECTED TO STAY CLOSE TO HPC KEEPING 
THE TROF IN LONGER FOR FRI BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE.

FOR SENSIBLE WX...SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH WED NIGHT 
INTO THU WITH A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING 
ABOUT THE THREAT OF SHSN TO THE MTNS AND EVEN THE LOWLANDS AT NIGHT 
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH 
DAYTIME TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 40S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH 
30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COULD BE LOOKING AT A 
WEAK SYS STREAKING IN FAST FLOW ALOFT FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHICH 
COULD PROVIDE MORE COVERAGE TO THE PCPN. MODERATING TEMPS TO ROUND 
OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE IN ON 
MONDAY...PROVIDING SHOWERS AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TONIGHT...MEDIUM MONDAY

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND HEIGHT OF 
CLOUDS NEAR THE FRONT ON MONDAY COULD VARY. 

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/JEE/30
NEAR TERM...JEE
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY