493 
FXUS62 KTAE 280800
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EST THU JAN 28 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S TODAY PROVIDING 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS 
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON THE WAY. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SONORA 
MEXICO EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL 
WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...A 
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND TRACK ALONG 
THE GULF COAST FRIDAY AND INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. 
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING 
OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. IN 
FACT...THE GFS/NAM AND 12Z ECMWF ALL SHOW THE LOW POSITIONED OVER 
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AT 12Z SAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY 
SATURDAY. AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...POPS WILL BE TAPERED FROM SILENT 
10% EXTREME WEST TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND. WILL SHOW 
POPS DIMINISHING DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR EASTERN ZONES AFTER 18Z 
SAT. THERE IS ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM 
AS IT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS FRIDAY AFTERNOON 
WITH EVEN A LOWER THREAT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR FA LATE 
FRIDAY. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN 
ISOLATED TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM WITH THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY... 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH BUT A FEW LOCATIONS 
COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE. ALL RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL 
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION BUT SOME ARE STILL NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD 
STAGE AND THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD PROLONG THE PERIOD OF RIVER 
FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RIVER STAGES 
AND FORECASTS.       

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...THE EXTENDED 
BEGINS WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA COUPLED WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON THE 
WEST COAST...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE PROGRESSING 
THROUGH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE...WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER COMING 
ASHORE IN BAJA. BY MONDAY...THE SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST INTO 
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIPITATION 
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BY TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION 
SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING. 
THIS SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SEEMS TO PHASE IN WITH A 
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND 
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SOME NICE 
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY IS SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM 
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. RUN TO RUN GFS 
SOLUTIONS HAVE VARIED GREATLY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. 
GFS ENSEMBLE HINTS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A BIG RAINMAKER. THE 
LATEST EURO IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS...BUT APPEARS TO SET UP AN 
OVERRUNNING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA ON 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF COOL MORNINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TEMPS 
WILL BE VERY SEASONABLE.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT BECOMING 
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND INCREASING TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS ACROSS THE 
WESTERN WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL FURTHER 
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA FRIDAY 
NIGHT ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE IN THE WAKE 
OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED AT ADVISORY LEVELS 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.  

&&

.AVIATION...(THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)...OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER A BROAD 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT 
WAS A FIRE...WHICH CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOME SMOKE ACROSS THE KTLH 
AIRPORT. HAVE INDICATED SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FU/BR 
AROUND SUNRISE AT KTLH. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH 
THIS MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS 
AFTERNOON...AND THICKER CIRRUS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT 
WEATHER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOLID RED FLAG DURATIONS APPEAR VERY LIKELY ONCE 
AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE TODAY. OVER SE AL 
AND SW GA...MINIMUM RH'S WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT WITH DURATIONS 
OF AROUND 4 HOURS IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG 
WARNING WILL ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. MOISTURE 
RETURNS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. 
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON FRIDAY. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...UPDATED AT 2 AM EST...THURSDAY MORNING
MINOR RIVERINE FLOODING IS IMPACTING THE FOLLOWING BASINS:
1) WITHLACOOCHEE: NEAR VALDOSTA GA/VDSG1
2) AUCILLA: LAMONT FL/LAMF1
3) ST MARKS: NEWPORT FL/NEPF1
4) CHOCTAWHATCHEE: CARYVILLE FL/CARF1 
5) APALACHICOLA: BLOUNTSTOWN FL/BLOF1
6) OCHLOCKONEE: CONCORD FL/CONF1
7) OCHLOCKONEE: HAVANA FL/HVNF1
8) CHIPOLA: ALTHA FL/ALTF1

MAJOR RIVERINE FLOODING IS AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING BASINS: 
1) CHOCTAWHATCHEE: BRUCE-EBRO/BRUF1

CONF1...36.65 FT AND FALLING BELOW FLOOD TONIGHT 
HVNF1...26.32 FT AND FALLING BELOW FLOOD FRIDAY NIGHT 
VDSG1...14.24 FT AND FALLING BELOW FLOOD FRIDAY NIGHT
LAMF1...11.94 FT THROUGH AND FALLING SLOWLY 
NEPF1...7.7 FT AND FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY NIGHT 
BRUF1...16.5 FT AND SLOWLY FALLING
BLOF1...STEADY AT 21.4 FT 
CARF1...13.67 FT AND SLOWLY FALLING BELOW FLOOD SATURDAY MORNING
ALTF1...22.33 FT AND FALLING BELOW FLOOD ON TODAY

REFER TO THE NWS TALLAHASSEE AHPS WEB PAGE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS:

HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE   67 35 67 53 64/ 0 0 20 70 60
PANAMA CITY   67 44 65 55 62/ 0 0 20 80 30
DOTHAN        65 39 62 51 55/ 0 0 20 80 20
ALBANY        66 34 63 48 57/ 0 0 20 80 40
VALDOSTA      67 34 67 53 61/ 0 0 10 70 60
CROSS CITY    69 37 71 56 67/ 0 0 10 50 70
APALACHICOLA  63 43 64 58 65/ 0 0 20 70 60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.  
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...BARRY
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...WATSON